Thursday, February 28, 2013

Israel: Coalition Talks Continue

Yair Lapid (left) and Naftali Bennett
The Israeli election was held on January 22, 2013.  My analysis of the expected coaltion talks, writing at the time, can be found here.  Meanwhile, more than a month has passed and it is still unclear what type of government Israel will have, other than the fact that it will almost certainly be led by the Likud party.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has failed to reach a coalition deal within the initial alotted time period.  He will now have until March 14, 2013.  If he still cannot conclude a deal by that time, there will either be new elections - or President Shimon Peres will ask another party to try to form the government.  In all probability, Netanyahu will reach a deal with some of the other parties by the deadline, even if the deal is reached just as time is expiring.

The only party to have joined the Likud so far is "The Movement" led by Tsipi Livni.  This was quite surprising to many Israelis since the centrist Livni joined a government without knowing which other parties would be involved.  She was granted a few cabinet posts and put in charge of overseeing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.  As leader of the Kadima party after the previous election, Livni had opted to stay out of the government, despite having a large and powerful party.  This time around, she brings a much smaller number of seats.  To date, no other parties have been willing to join this coalition, which now numbers 37.  A majority of 61 is required to control the Knesset.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has been speaking to all of the possible suitors - Labour, Yesh Atid, Habayit Hayehudi and the ultra-Religious parties.  These talks are mainly held behind closed doors and it is really difficult to know exactly what is being demanded, promised or rejected and what genuine information or misinformation is being leaked.

However, it is fairly clear that two of the largest parties, Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi have reached some sort of deal under which they will only enter the government together.  Apparently, the main piece of the deal centres around the idea that almost all ultra-religious Israelis will be required to serve in the army or the national service, by age 21, with only a small number exempted.  Both parties seem to be holding very firm to this demand, even as the ultra-religious Shas party has been attacking the parties for their lack of flexiblity and alleging that they are "anti-Haredi."  Tonight, Likud-Beitenu suggested that Yesh Atid was refusing to sit in a government with the ultra-religious parties.  However, it is not clear that Yesh Atid has actually taken this position.  It may be that they are holding merely steadfast to certain demands - the content of which are entirely unacceptable to the ultra-religious.  However, there is a big difference between insisting on some significant policy changes that will affect Haredim (as well as many other Israelis) - versus being "anti-Haredi."

Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid seem to have been able to agree on policies in a number of areas, primarily related to domestic issues.  Their stated aims are to improve education in Israel, improve life for the middle class, change the relationship of the State and the Ultra-Religious and other issues.  Both Bennett and Lapid served in the Israeli Defence Forces and both believe that the burden of mandatory military service should be distributed universally across Israeli society including ultra-religious Jews and Arab Israelis.  Overall, in the realm of domestic policy, Bennett does not appear to have staked out any particularly extreme positions, though his party would certainly have a much more right leaning social and domestic agenda than the platform on which Lapid campaigned.

The big question mark is what this means for the future of Israeli-Arab and Israeli-Palestinian relations.  Bennett is adamantly opposed to any territorial concessions and has indicated that his party will not support a government that makes any such compromises.  Lapid is much more flexible and favours an immediate return to the bargaining table  with the Palestinians.  Even though both parties oppose any concessions with respect to Jerusalem, it is hard to see how any kind of peace deal could be reached with the Palestinians without significant territorial concessions in other areas.  So, ultimately, if both Bennett and Lapid join the Netanyahu-led government together, the government will likely be preoccupied with domestic issues and negotiations with the Palestinians will move down on the priority list, even below where they have been currently.

The big winner so far in the Israeli public forum has been Yair Lapid.  Israelis have apparently been very supportive of his determination and resolve in not making concessions to the ultra-orthodox on the issue of universal conscription.  Some polls have suggested that Lapid's party would win more than 30 seats if a new election were held now.  It may well be that Lapid plans to deal with domestic issues first and then use his momentum and popularity to force a change in the governing coaltion or to force the government to turn its attention to addressing the Palestinian-Israeli dispute in more flexible fashion.

In any event, it seems to me that there are still reasons for Israelis to be cautiously optimistic.  Although the Yesh Atid Party may not be able to fulfill all of its promises, the determination that Yair Lapid is showing with respect to domestic issues is a promising sign that some significant, positive changes are on the way.
 






Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Israel's "Makolet" (Corner Store) Culture

When I was younger, my aunt and uncle ran a corner store in Montreal.  Neighbourhood residents would come by and pick up most of their staples - fresh bread, cheese, meat, fruits and vegetables and dry goods.  The neighbours would spend some time talking to my aunt and uncle, who learned to speak a number of different languages - at least enough to have animated street conversations.  Over time, in Montreal, as with many other North American cities, these small, family run corner stores gave way to the spread of 24 hour supermarkets. and convenience stores.  While there are still "convenience stores" across North America, few people would think of making a full shopping order in one of these places.  Even fewer probably spend much time speaking to the proprietors.  There is a social disconnect in these modern convenience stores which engenders very little neighbourly communication.   Sometimes, this might be due to a language barrier.  Convenience store owners and workers in North America are often immigrants who have little facility with the English language.  Other times, there is simply a class or social gap that serves a communciation barrier.  In any event, there are few big cities left in which there is a culture of widespread family run corner stores with socially engaged clientele.

That reality is quite different from the situation in many Israeli towns and cities, where the family run corner store - the "makolet" is still ubiquitous.

Liat Market, Ra'anana
Take as one example, our neighbourhood in Ra'anana.  Just around the corner, the "Liat Market" is packed with patrons early in the morning and again towards the end of the day.  Many local residents come by every day to pick up fresh bread, milk, eggs and other products.  The proprietors are on a first name basis with most of the customers.  It is not unusual to hear Eli, one of the co-owners, chatting with different people about soccer games, politics, recent news events or other topics including their personal family situations.  Like in many of the other corner stores across Israel, the owners run a credit system for the customers and keep track of purchases made by any members of the family (including their young children) on index cards.  They collect at the end of the month, if they can...But even if some customers require credit extensions every now and then, there is a certain trust to the relationship and a confidence that they will get paid eventually.  I am sure that most customers reciprocate this trust by paying in timely fashion, even though there are certainly exceptions.

Until relatively recently, the options were credit or cash, though now the owners moved to a computerized system and began accepting credit cards.  Like with the old style corner stores, such as the one that my aunt and uncle used to run, the owners get to know quite a number of the customers well.  There is a definite sense of a common social fabric.  This is partially due to the general Israeli openness and the way in which people interact across the country.  But it is also a product of a culture that still values the local corner store and its benefits, including the close personal relationship with the owners.  Baked goods, the daily newspapers and the dairy products are all delivered, fresh, early in the morning and many people use these really fresh goods for their breakfast or their packed lunches for themselves or for their kids' school lunches.

These makolets are so popular, that they are everywhere.  Within a five minute walk, there are at least of three of them in our Ra'anana neighbourhood and many more nearby.  Things can even become quite competitive between the different owners.  So while the Liat Market, nearest to our place, does not sell fresh fruits and vegetables, there is a competing makolet just just down the street.  Yitzhak Hen's Minimarket has a wide range of fresh produce.  He also opens up at 6 a.m., an hour before Eli to get that competitive edge.  Like the owners of Liat Market, Yitzhak and his wife are friendly, outgoing, personable and helpful.  They joke around with their customers and they won't shy away from a discussion of just about any topic.  Some people in the neighbourhood are fiercely loyal to one owner or the other.  But by and large, the owners of both makolets have wide ranging social connections with many of the neighbourhood residents, many of whom walk over in the morning from nearby their nearby condominium,  apartment buildings or private homes.

While these are only two examples, I have seen these makolets all over the country, in large and small cities and towns.  This "makolet culture" is a reflection of a number of aspects of life in Israel.  It captures the warm and close social interaction that often takes place between retailers and customers, when they are not angrily negotiating over the appropriate price of an item.  It also captures the lack of a hard social barrier than can often exist in North America between store owners and their patrons.  And while watching people pay for goods in the makolet, often by way of credit, with payments for larger orders divided up over a number of installments, you get the sense that the makolet is also represenative of the way in which many retail transactions are conducted.

Overall, these makolets are throwbacks to the corner stores of years ago in many large North American cities, like the one that my aunt and uncle ran for so many years.  But unlike the situation in North America, there seems to be little likelihood that these makolets will vansih anytime soon.  They are far too ingrained in the social fabric of the country.






  

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Israel: National Robotics Competition

This is a scene from the national high school robotics championship that was held earlier today at Metrowest High School in Ra'anana, Israel.

The competition winners advance to participate in the annual Trinity College Firefighting Home Robot Contest in Hartford, Connecticut.  This international robotics contest (the "TCFFHRC") is open to entrants from around the world.  This will be the 20th year of the contest.  The finals will be held in Hartford on April 6 and 7, 2013.  Past winners have included teams from China, Israel, Canada and the United States.

Contestants are required to build self propelled robots that move through a maze to find and extinguish a burning candle.  Along the way, the robots may face an obstacle (a stuffed toy dog) that is placed in the maze at one of several random locations based on the roll of a die.  The candle is placed in one of four locations, also randomly.  The robot is built and programmed ahead of time.  Contestants are only allowed to place their robots at the starting position and turn them on.  The judge preses the "start button."  Robots are awarded points for checking each of the rooms, finding the candle and extinguishing it.  They lose points for touching or bumping into the walls or bumping into the dog.  Of course, the robots are also timed and speed is a very important part of the competition and the scoring.

Students work very hard for months building and programming these robots.  On the day of the competition, it all comes down to three chances.  The atmosphere is quite tense.  This year, there were more than 60 teams competing.  This is a very difficult competition and historically, only about 30% of the teams succeed in having their robot complete the course and extinguish the candle at least once.

This a view of one of the mazes, with a robot at starting position.  We watched as quite a number of robots set off quite hopefully and then...faced disaster.  Some moved only a few metres and then suddenly stopped.  Others crashed into walls, became stuck trying to turn corners or faced other unexpected difficulties.  One robot started spinning around repeatedly.  Another arrived at the candle but could not blow it out.  By the end of the first round, approximately ten robots had succeeded in putting out the candles and completing the mazes.

After the second round, four or five additional teams succeeded in putting out their candles and completing the mazes.  All of the teams that failed in their first two attempts were eliminated from the competition, leaving of about 15 teams to participate in the final round.

By the end of the competition, three teams had succeeded in completing the course successfully and extinguishing the candle on all three tries.  All three of these teams, which finished in 1st, 2nd and 3rd place were from Misgav High School in Israel, a school which took the 1st, 3rd and 5th places at the 2012 world competition. 

5th Place in Israeli National Robotics Championship
Three teams from Ostrovsky High School in Ra'anana finished 4th, 5th, and 7th in this year's Israeli competition.  This photo features the 5th place team.  You might recognize the student in the middle...

Although Israel has generally sent the first three teams to the international competition, at which they have performed quite well, Israel has sometimes sent additional teams to participate in these exciting events.  It remains to be seen whether Ra'anana will be represented at this year's   TCFFHRC in Hartford.  That will likely be decided with input from Ra'anana's Mayor, Ostrovsky High School, and perhaps Ministry of Education officials.

Needless to say, we are thrilled and excited for all of the participants, the winning teams and the students of Ostrovsky in Ra'anana who performed so well....especially the students in the photo who came in 5th place...one of whom happens to be a family member...


Sunday, February 24, 2013

Purim 2013 - 5773

I wrote about Purim in Ra'anana last year so I'll try not to repeat too much of last year's blog.  But Purim really seems to be an "expanding" holiday in Israel.  Although it is really a one day holiday - and one of the "minor" holidays on the Jewish calendar, it seems to have every increasing stature in Israel.  Perhaps that is because it is such a fun holiday.

Kids are off school for two days (the actual day of Purim - which is today) and tomorrow as well.  But the festivities began even before that.  On Friday, students across Israel went to school dressed up in various costumes.  Many cities had their annual Purim parades that day.

In Ra'anana, the "Adloyadah" parade consists of all of the schools across Ra'anana, including elementary, middle schools and high schools, religious, secular and other building floats and marching through the main city street (Ahuza Street) led by the Mayor.  The float on the left is part of the Hasharon middle school effort.

The float on the right is from the Ostrovosky high school.  Thousands of people lined the streets to watch the parade, which lasted for close to two hours.

Purim officially began on Saturday night with readings of the Megillah (the book of Esther) in synagogues and other places across the country.  We enjoyed a fully egalitarian, lay-led Conservative service and Megillah reading at Hod VeHadar in K'far Sabah.  Many of not most of the congregants came in costumes, including almost all of the children and most of the adults.  Our family accounted for two of the ten chapters, which is quite fun.  Reading the Megillah at Purim is challenging since the text is read from a scroll with no vowels, punctuation or musical notes - just like reading from the Torah.  It also seems to me that there are fewer and fewer young people who know how to chant it properly and that is quite concerning.  So we have made sure to try to do our part by teaching our kids...two of the three so far.  Fortunately, for people who are interested in learning, there are some great resources now available.  For example, the Virtual Cantor site has all of the readings available.  There are many other sites as well.

Purim continued today until sundown (other than in Jerusalem, where there is a bonus day tomorrow).  Many people delivered "Mishloach Manot" packages to friends and relatives - packages of food items, usually.  We received some really great themed Mishloach Manot this year including an all black and white themed package - and a Mexican themed package that included salsa and an avacado...

Another important part of Purim celebrations is making efforts to help the less fortunate by contributing money and food for the needy. There were visible activities in this regard throughout Ra'anana - and all over Israel.

All of these customs are rooted in Jewish religious tradition.  But in present day Israel, Purim is more than a religious festival.  It is a holiday of parties all over the country, people wearing costumes in the streets, gift giving and general merriment.  Walking along Ahuza Street, I saw people of all ages wandering about in various costumers.  Many teenagers dressed in very "minimalist" outfits.  For some reason, it seemed to be very popular for teenage boys to be wearing baby outfits - simply an adult diaper - and nothing else.  Some of them also carried a rattle...

Many teenage girls were wearing equally scanty outfits.  For example, we walked by a whole group of female "police officers," all wearing extremely short mini-skirts, hardly the current uniform of the Israeli police.

The grade 12 high school class at Ostrovsky High School all wore the same outfit.  The students chipped in some money and bought a set of matching white painters overalls for everyone in the class.  At 7:30 a.m., the met at a nearby park and had a "paint war" dumping paints of all different colours all over each other.  Then they all went to school dressed up as painters.  It was quite a sight to see the Ostrovsky students wandering around Ra'anana in their costumes.  Some of the students, mainly the boys as far as I could tell, wore nothing other than the overalls...

Fortunately Israel enjoyed some really nice weather.  If the weather had been cooler, many people would have been quite chilly if they had worn the same "costumes."

Overall, Purim is one of those holidays that is particularly exciting in Israel.  There is a celebratory atmosphere throughout the country and that  makes Purim very festive. 

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Israeli Election is Over: Coalition Talks Begin

On Wednesday, we received the official results from the January 22, 2013 Israeli election.  These results have now been slightly adjusted and we have received the "final" official result as of approximately 5 p.m. on Thursday January 24, 2013.  Apparently, there were still ballots to be counted from military personnel, prisons, hospitals and foreign-stationed diplomats.  After counting all of these ballots  (approximately 220,000), a few changes have now been announced.  Naftali Bennett's party, HaBayit Hayehudi has increased by one seat to 12 and the United Arab List has dropped to 4 from 5. Yair Lapid and the Yesh Atid party have remained stable at 19 seats.  The Yesh Atid party still seems to be in the driver's seat as the front runner to help build a government with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Lapid has a wide ranging and interesting background.  The son of Tommy Lapid, late leader of the Shinui ("change") party, a secular party which reached 15 Knesset seats in 2003, Yair Lapid has politics in his family background.  In addition to his political career, he has also been involved in many other activities.  He has written well known Israeli songs, tried amateur kick-boxing (which he still practices 1-2 hours a day - even while on the campaign trail), acted in Israeli shows and worked as a TV news commentator.  He has also brought a refreshing approach to bridging the secular-religious divide in Israel.  For example, or a number of years, he ran a Shavuoth night "tikkun" - an all night learning program that  focused on a wide range of topics of Jewish interest rather than pure Torah study.

With his new political party, Lapid has emphasized a new approach to politics in Israel and an effort to represent the silent majority - the non-ultra-orthdox, army-serving, middle class, zionist Israelis.  Among other platforms, Lapid has called for efforts to increase the availability of lower cost housing, and to ensure that all Israelis, at the age of 18, including ultra-orthodox and Arabs, serve in the army or perform some type of national service.  He has vowed to insist on these demands as part of his fundamental terms for joining any coaltion government.  He has also vowed to insist that the peace process with the Palestinians be re-ignited.

As of yesterday, the left-centre "bloc" in Israel, including the Arab parties and Yesh Atid made up exactly 1/2 of the new Knesset - 60 seats - with the right and right-centre bloc, including the ultra-orthodox, making up the other 60.  As a result of this afternoon's announcement, adjusting the results, the right bloc now has 61 seats and could, theoretically, form a very right wing/ultra-orthodox coaltion that could hold the majority by 2 seats.  Most commentators feel that Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want to go down this road for a number of reasons.  The government would be very fragile.  The Prime Minister would be under constant threat of different coalition members leaving the government if they were not provided with new concessions.  Many of the concessions Prime Minister Netanyahu would have to make, particularly to the ultra-orthodox would be unpalatable to much of the Israeli public including many who voted for Netanyahu's party, Likud.  So there is a real sense that Prime Minister Netanyahu  very much intends to enter into a coalition agreement with Yesh Atid.

But this is where the fun starts.  Lapid has indicated that he has three key demands in order to enter the government:

1.   Most imporantly - an equal sharing of the "burden" of military/ national service.  Lapid proposes that all Israelis, with the exception of a very small number of ultra-orthodox, super-bright scholars, will be required to serve in the army or perform national service.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has made statements indicating that he is prepared to support this idea, although it is unclear whether he will be willing to follow it through.  The other left and left-centre parties - such as Labor, Meretz, Hatenuah and Kadima would support this type of legislated change.  It may also be the case that Naftali Bennett's party, Habayit Heyehudi, would also support a modified version of this type of law. Bennett might also support changes to Israeli laws that deal with zoning restrictions on land and other laws that would, generally, help bring about a lower cost of living in Israel.  So there is a good chance that Lapid could wind up in a government with Netanyahu and Bennett, which would make significant domestic changes that many Israelis would appreciate.  It is hard to imagine that these terms (at least universal conscription) are terms to which the Shas party (with its 11 Knesset seats) would agree.  So this scenario might see a government without Shas, the ultra-religious party that has historically extracted massive concessions in exchange for joining coalition governments.

2.  Lapid has also indicated that another key demand is a resumption of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue with a view to negotiating an agreement.  Of course, just starting talks does not mean that they would go anywhere.  Lapid has firmly stated that he would not be prepared to divide Jerusalem and that view probably represents a significant majority view in Israel.  The Palestinian Authority described the visit by Prime Minister Netanyahu to the Kotel on the eve of the Israeli elections as a "provocation."  But this is Judaism's holiest site.  There are no conditions, in the foreseeable future, under which Israel would cede control of the Old City of Jerusalem.

Lapid has also indicated that the Palestinian refugee problem should be solved by the Palestinians in their new state when an agreement is reached.  This makes eminent sense and is a view that also enjoys wide ranging Israeli public support.

These two issues, Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugee problem, have supposedly caused or contributed to collapses in talks in the past.  But realistically, no Israeli government, even a left wing government would be prepared or even able to make major concessions on these points.

On the other hand, Lapid has indicated a willingness to support a two-state solution and to come to terms with Palestinians on mutually agreeable borders, which could even include the removal of some Jewish settlements.  It is quite clear Bennett's party is not prepared to make any such concessions and would refuse to join a government that planned to do so.  So while Bennett may be prepared to support some of Lapid's domestic agenda, he will not support Lapid's foreign policy. 

3.  Lapid's third demand is for a reform to education to ensure that everyone studies secular subjects in school. This is strongly opposed by Shas, but not necessarily by Bennett.  Netanyahu has indicated that he would be prepared to support this type of change.

Overall, Shas is on the opposite of Bennett on a number of these issues.  While they might support Bennett's foreign policy views, they would oppose most of his domestic agenda and would insist on continued support for much of the ultra-religious political agend, which Lapid has staunchly opposed, and which make up two of his three main platform ideas. 

So it looks like the Netanyahu-Lapid coalition, if it happens, will either include Shas - and maintain much of the status quo on the domestic front while moving ahead on the diplomatic front - or it will include Bennett and it will make signficant changes domestically but drag its feet on foreign policy matters including negotiations ,with the Palestinians, if they take place at all.

For now, the likeilhood seems to be the addition of Habayit Hayehudi.  This may well result in some very real and tangible gains for the left-centre, domestically, but it is unlikely to result in any progress with respect to peace talks and peace efforts.  Of course, if Lapid is able to demonstrate tangible accomplishments for at least part of his platform, that may well improve his political capital and open the door to changes in other areas in the future.

In the meantime, it is worth remembering that the Shas party negotiators are very experienced in these matters.  They may yet offer some concessions on the issue of universal conscription and may show a willingness to support a broad peace initiative.  It is quite conceivable, though, admittedly less likely, that Shas could be part of a Lapid-Netanyahu government that could make progress in a few different areas.

Some commentators are estimating that it may take up to six weeks for this coalition negotiation process to unfold.  This is where we will see the real results of this election.  This process is sure to be even more interesting than the election itself.







Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Israeli Election 2013 - Official Results

Here are the final results of yesterday's Israeli election - according to the Israeli press.  These results could still change slightly - though they are apparently based on more than 99% of the actual polling station results.  If there are any changes from these numbers, they would be very minor.

Likud 31                     Right/Right-Centre            Same as exit polls
Yesh Atid 19             Left/Left-Centre                 Same
Labour 15                   Left                                     Down 2 seats from exit polls
Shas 11                       Ultra-Religious                  Down 1
Bayit Yehudi - 11      Religious/Right                  Down 1
Meretz 6                     Left                                      Down 1
Hatenuah 6                 Left-Centre                         Down 1
Yehadut HaTorah 7   Ultra-Religious                  Up 1
Hadash 4                    Arab/Left                             Up 1
Raam-Taal 5              Arab/Left                             Up 1  
Balad 3                       Arab/Left                             Up 1

Kadima (Mofaz) 2     Centre                                  Up 2

With these new numbers, the "right wing bloc" as it is referred to by the Israeli press - which includes Likud, Bayit Yehudi and the two religious parties, Shas and Yehadut HaTorah sits at a total of 60 seats, which would not provide them with a sufficient number of Knesset members to form a government (61 would be required).  To form a government, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to make compromises with at least some of the centre or left-centre parties to get them into a coalition government.  In doing so, Netanyahu will have some very interesting challenges.  He may choose to start by negotiating a deal with the number two party, Yesh Atid.  Assuming he could come to a deal with this party, the deal would probably be attractive to Tsipi Livni and HaTenuah as well.  That would put the three parties at 56.  They would then either need to add religious parties (who have 18 seats - between Shas and Yehadut HaTorah) or they would have to add the right wing Bayit Hayehudi (with 11).  Much of Lapid's campaign has focused on reducing the influence of the ultra-religious parties in Israel - ensuring that the ultra-religious are conscripted to the army, reducing the amount of money paid to Yeshivas.  So it is hard to see how Netanyahu will be able to build a government with both Yesh Atid and the religious parties.

If Netanyahu chooses to add Bennett's party (Habayit Hayehudi), there will also be significant hurdles.  While Habayit Hayehudi might go along with some form of universal conscription (they are a religious party but a party of "modern Orthodox" who serve in the army), Bennett is strongly opposed to some of Lapid's ideas with respect to the peace process.  If this type of coalition is arranged, it might lead to significant domestic policy changes but it is hard to see how a government that includes Bennett would make any meaningful changes to the policies of the current Israeli government with repect to the Palestinians.

So in either case, it will be tricky for Netanyahu, who will likely be required to include Yesh Atid plus either the ultra-religious parties or the more nationalist party, both of which have interests that conflict with those of Yesh Atid.

Netanyahu could aim for a broader coaltion with Lapid, Labour and even Meretz.  However, this seems quite unlikely.  Labour's leader Sheli Yacomovitch has attacked Netanyahu at every opportunity and has railed against the possibility of another Likud led government.  She has stated very clearly she would not join.  While this might be a wonderful bargaining tactic, it is hard to see how Labour would wind up in a goverment with Likud this time around.  Meretz is even further to the left.

One other option is that the left and left-centre bloc could try to form a coalition with the religious parties and take over the government.  T|his is what Labour leader Yacomovitch was suggesting last night that she would try to do.  However, she is sitting at only 15 seats.  Even if she added 18 ultra-religious seats, that would get her to 33.  Add Meretz and she has 39.  She could add Tsipi Livni and get up to 45.  She could get the support of the Arab parties and that would get her to 57.  Would Lapid want to join this type of government, which would rely heavily on including 18 ultra-religious Knesset members and 12 Arab members of the Knesset?  This seems extremely unlikely.  I would have to conclude that Labour is going to be part of the opposition unless it dramatically changes its rhetoric very soon.

So overall, it looks like a government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and moderated, perhaps significantly, by Yair Lapid.  We should see some signficant changes in direction.  If the government includes Shas and Yehadut HaTorah but not Habayit Hayehudi, we may see movement towards reopening peace negotiations with the Palestinians but not nearly as much domestic change as Lapid might have liked.  If the government includes Habayit Hayehudi but not the ultra-religious parties, we could see signficant domestic change but not necessarily any movement on Israeli-Palestinian issues.  Of course, coalition negotiations in Israel never cease to amaze, so we could see some very interesting surprises.  Prime Minister Netanyahu is very experienced in handling these negotiations and has managed to put together some very stable Israeli governments.  As he said in his speech last night, it is time for him to get to work and start negotiating.

The next few weeks - or even months of coalition building and horse trading will be fascinating.  We will only understand that real results and meaning of this election once we see the make up of the new coalition government.  In either case, it is almost certain that there will be some movement to the left on either domestic issues, foreign policy issues or perhaps even both.  

Postscript:  See my subsequent posts - but the "final results" have Bayit Hayehudi at 12 and Ra'am-Tal down to 4.  I have discussed the implications of this in my Jan 24 post - Election is Over: Coalition Talks Begin.


Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Election Night Israel 2013: Summary of Election Night Speeches

Update at 1 a.m. - the night of Israeli elections - 2013:

As a political junkie (in three different countries), I enjoy election night speeches.  I have watched the speeches of the major party leaders tonight - which have been given even before the official results are in.  Here are my short summaries (paraphrased in some cases) of their speeches:  (Roughly in order that speeches were given):


Shas:  Shas is strong, thank G-d.  (Biblical quote, followed by another Biblical quote).  We have won 11 or 12 seats and plan on playing a major role in the next government.  (Additional Biblical quote).  Thanks to G-d and to all of our voters.  (Excerpt from the Hallel prayer follows).

Bayit Hayehudi (Naftali Bennett):  Israel is turning a new page.  We are proud to be Zionists.  We strongly support our soldiers and the Israeli Armed Forces.  Everyone is welcome to join with us - at least everyone who supports Israel - our version of Israel.  (Spoken while a range of Israeli/religious music blares on at set intervals).  We are not afraid to stand up for Israel even in the face of domestic and international pressure.  We don't believe that a single Jewish person should be required to move from his or her home as part of any peace deal.  In fact, we don't believe a peace deal is possible.  This is only the beginning for us.

HeTenuah (Tsipi Livni):  Okay I seem to have won less seats than expected.  But I didn't start my own party to quit.  I plan on staying in the Knesset.  Maybe I'll even join the government.  I'm still here...for now...

Labour (Shelly Yacimovitch):  (This was the craziest speech).  Even though we have won 17 seats - and Netanyahu has 33 - the results show that the Israeli public has rejected Likud and chosen the left.  Stay tuned to the results and you may see that Netanyahu will not be able to build a coalition and may not be the next Prime Minister.... We will fight with all our might to stop Netanyahu and his capitalist, anti-peace agenda which has created massive poverty in Israel.  (Here I am paraphrasing - but this is the gist of her speech).

Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) (Clearly the best speech):  Although it is exciting to win so many seats, we have a significant responsibility to our voters to try to bring about change in Israel.  We will push our priorities - education, universal enlistment or national service, improving the lives of the middle class in Israel and working towards a peace deal with the Palestinians.  We will not give up on our principles and forget about those who elected us.  Our party is 50% women, 50% men.  It includes religious and secular, Sephardi and Ashkenazi, right wing and left wing members.  It is truly a centrist party and we hope to build on our success to date with the goal of improving Israeli society.

Likud (Prime Minister Netanyahu):  This speech was given at the exact same time as Lapid's.  Some TV stations used split screens and showed both at the same time (with sound).  Others (state run TV) only showed Netanyahu.  It was one of the shorter speeches:
I am the Prime Minister for a third time.  In case you didn't hear me, I am still the Prime Minister (repeat a few more times - six in total, I think).  We will aim to build a broad coalition based on the principles that we support.  (Interestingly, he mentioned universal enlistment or national service and lowering the price of housing in Israel - bones to Yair Lapid...).  In case you didn't hear me - I am the Prime Minister and will continue to be the Prime Minister.  Now I have to go and put together a 61 seat coalition - or more.  So excuse me - I have to leave.  Oh - thank you to Avigdor Lieberman for joining this group - and helping us go from 43 to 31 seats...hopefully you will stay out of jail Avigdor (he didn't say that).

Still waiting for the actual results...