Hi. I have a bit of time so this blog might be a bit longer than usual. I have divided this post into three parts - the government, the virus and some miscellaneous stuff. Lots going on, I guess....
Israeli Government
As you might have read, we finally have a government in Israel after three elections. It is quite similar to the government we have had up until this point, with the addition of about 18 members of the now splintered Blue and White opposition party. Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister, for at least the next year and a half and the ultra-religious parties are still part of the government. Yamina, the right wing nationalist party, is also still part of the new coalition.
As you probably know, we went through three elections and we were still mired in a stalemate. Netanyahu and his right wing bloc had a total of 58 Knesset seats, leaving them 3 short of being able to form a government. The opposition included 15 members of the Arab Joint List party, some of whom are virulently anti-Zionist. But with the Joint List members, the Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz was able to cobble together 62 seats and was attempting to move ahead with a new government.
This plan created quite a bit of uproar in Israel. Many of Gantz's critics and even some of his supporters noted that he and other Blue and White members had promised that they would not form a government relying on the support of the Joint List. Of course Blue and White had also promised that it would not join a government that was led by Netanyahu. The Likud party figured that Gantz was bluffing and there was no way Gantz could go ahead and build a government relying on the Arab parties. So the Likud party stuck with Netanyahu and the full right wing bloc and insisted that Gantz's only move was to give up and join them. Netanyahu stated over and over again that if Gantz did not join him, there would be a fourth election. He also stated that because of the Covid-19 outbreak, the nation was in a crisis and that the only thing Gantz could do to help save the country would be to join Netanyahu, on Netanyahu's terms.
For Blue and White, many of its members hoped that by proceeding to take certain steps towards forming a government with the Joint List, the Likud and/or its right wing bloc would start to crack under the pressure. At some point, the Likud bloc members would realize that unless they made significant concessions towards a genuine unity government, they would all be out of power and Israel would be controlled by a left centre government with support from 15 Joint List members. Gantz moved things along in this direction. He developed a plan to replace the speaker of the house, Yuri Edelstein, with a new speaker from the Yesh Atid faction of his party and he also planned to introduce some new legislation including a bill that would prevent Netanyahu from being Prime Minister in the next government until his criminal charges were addressed.
But as the new Knesset members were sworn in, Edelstein, acting under Netanyahu's direction, closed the Knesset and refused to hold the vote that would have led to his replacement. The Blue and White party sought direction from the Supreme Court of Israel, which ruled that Edelstein had to open the Knesset. But Edelstein refused. Instead, he tendered his resignation along with a 48 hour window for it to take effect. This meant that the Knesset would continue to be closed and he could not be replaced. It was a calculated move by Bibi to buy more time and continue negotiating with Gantz while he was still in a position of power. Bibi continued to threaten that if Gantz did not give in to his demands, that would create a fourth election. He also called on Gantz to "put Israel above all else" and join his government. Bibi and his bloc members were prepared to openly disregarded the order of the Supreme Court as a delay tactic to put more pressure on the opposition.
At the same time, Gantz lost considerable bargaining power. Two Blue and White members, Zvi Hauser and Yoav Hendel, decided that they would not agree to support a government that was relying on the support of the Arab parties. Another member, Orly Levy, also stated that she would vote against any proposal that would include the Joint List. So the Blue and White party was now left with the potential support of only 59 with considerable confusion about what Hauser and Hendel might do in the event of any given vote. One additional member of Blue and White started to indicate that he would defect as well. Faced with all of this internal pressure along with the pressure from Bibi and political pressure from the right, Gantz conceded defeat and agreed to join Bibi's government, against the wishes of about half of the members of his own coalition group.
To try to paint the rosiest picture possible, Gantz claimed that he had extracted genuine concessions and that this was a necessary move for Israel at this challenging time. Although the deal includes equality between the number of Blue and White cabinet ministers and the number from the entire right wing bloc - 14 or 15 each initially and now maybe up to 17, it leaves Netanyahu in place as the Prime Minister for at least 18 more months. It also includes a provision to change the law and allow Netanyahu to serve as a cabinet minister while facing indictment.
A significant number of Blue and White members were outraged. The Blue and White party itself had been made up of three different factions. Two of them rejected this deal and decided to split. Yair Lapid's party Yesh Atid and the Telem party led by Moshe (Boogie) Ya'alon both left Gantz's party, taking 18 members with them. That left Gantz with 16 to join Netanyahu's government, of whom 15 will be cabinet ministers. The government will have a massive cabinet with between 28 and 34 cabinet ministers to try and keep as many Knesset members as possible happy.
Meanwhile, Lieberman, who had held the balance of power with 7 seats, has been left out in the cold. He is not part of the new government and was unable to force the Likud to agree to a true national coalition government between the two big parties without the ultra-religious parties. This new government is likely to continue the same direction with respect to state-religion issues, which is a major defeat for the Blue and White party and its supporters and for Lieberman.
Meanwhile, the left wing coalition between the Meretz (secular democratic) and Labour (socialist) party has also fractured. Before the election, a key Labour Party member, former Labour leader Amir Peretz, said he would shave his trademark moustache so that people could "read his lips" to prove that he would not join a Bibi-led government. Today he seems poised to join the Netanyahu government, leading his coalition partners to split off into another faction. It is unclear why Peretz feels that it is so urgent to abandon his party's principles and join this government but that is what appears to be taking shape.
Yair Lapid and the Yesh Atid party will stay with the Telem party and look like they will be the official opposition. Yesh Atid and Telem both broke away from the Blue and White party as a result of this deal. Only Lapid and Ya'alon seem to have been prepared to weather the pressure from Netanyahu and stay the course towards trying to bring about genuine change in the Israeli government.
In the end, after three elections, Israel has another right wing-ultra-religious government, led by Netanyahu, who continues to await the start of his criminal proceedings. A major defeat for the centre and the left in Israel and another big win for Netanyahu who is truly a master politician and an unrivaled manipulator. Like many other politicians, he is ready willing and able to use every trick in the book to retain power.
Covid-19 Update
Like the rest of the world, Israel continues to grapple with the spread of Covid-19. As of yesterday, there were about 4,300 cases in Israel. There have been 16 deaths and there are about 80 people in serious or critical condition. The government, led by direction from the Ministry of Health, has implemented wide-spread restrictions on movement across the country. Many businesses are closed including most non-essential retail establishments, restaurants (other than for take-out and delivery) and all forms of entertainment. These restrictions may have helped to limit the spread and allow the hospitals to prepare for the impending onslaught of patients who will require respirators and ventilators in the coming weeks. It is unclear whether the combination of restrictions and preparations will suffice but Israel is doing everything it can to stay ahead of the curve. Prime Minister Netanyahu has gone on TV regularly to introduce new, increasingly harsh restrictions. He has also been warning Israelis that the steps are necessary to ensure that Israel does not turn into Italy, Spain, or the United States. In one TV appearance last week, he suggested that the U.S. may wind up with close to 500,000 fatalities and that Israel would likely wind up with more than 10,000. We will continue to hope that these predictions are not accurate and that we will soon find a vaccine or a cure for this disease.
Miscellaneous Other
I saw the meme that is circulating - "I miss those days when I could voluntarily choose to skip going to synagogue." Well, our shul, Kehillat Hod VeHadar, has been building up a series of Zoom shul meetings. Our shul has not implemented Zoom services on Shabbat for halachic reasons but it has been running Kabbalat Shabbat (before Shabbat) and havdalah (after Shabbat) with more than 50 different zoom windows open and somewhere between 50 and 100 people attending. Not bad for a shul with only a few hundred families. Like Synagogues around the world, the Kehillah will continue to develop online learning opportunities, classes and other meetings while in-person attendance is not feasible. I see that Beth Tikvah Synagogue in Toronto is also headed down that path as are many other congregations. Families are gearing up for Zoom Pesach seders. I think we are likely to hold an intimate Pesach Seder for just the five of us rather than a Zoom event. But I guess we have a bit of time to decide.
Israeli TV station, channel 12, has been broadcasting concerts each night at midnight on TV as well as other concerts at different times on its website. We have seen some terrific concerts including Idan Raichel, Rami Kleinstein, Amir Dadon and Keren Peles. Others have been less memorable but it is a great initiative. All of the concerts are performed live at an empty Zappa Club in Tel-Aviv.
Like many other people, we have been doing lots of cooking. Trying out some new recipes. We made some homemade pizza - even the sauce was from scratch. Tried out a recipe for long ribs, a Spanish Frittata, and a whole roasted chicken (mixed recipes from a friend and a family member). Lots of other ideas coming up. I have a humus recipe from one good friend and a channa masala recipe from another. And it is nice barbecue weather. Trying to keep the recipes reasonably healthy and limit the amount of wine that is consumed with the meals. And trying to do some exercise using a phone app - to keep off the weight. We haven't really made a dent in the whisky collection yet but if this isolation period continues long enough - we might start.
Israel has made great efforts to bring Israelis home from all over the world. El Al has played a significant role in this - despite the enormous financial and existential difficulties it is now facing. Some flights were sponsored by donors, businesses and other contributors to ensure that people could come back home for free or at a greatly reduced rate. Other flights were were arranged by El Al itself or by travel agencies or other airlines. Everyone arriving home (including our family member...) has had to go into a two week self-isolation. So we are grateful for all of the efforts of these airlines and travel agencies and happy to be going through that now with our self-isolated family member. We are looking forward to the end of the two week period - right before Pesach.
Obviously there will be no travelling for me (or anyone else) for a while - who knows for how long - but hopefully there will be clients who are happy to meet virtually. I hope that my friends with big family events including bnei-mitzvoth and weddings will see all of this subside super quickly or will find ways to make alternate arrangements that are equally meaningful.
It is a strange world without any sports events, entertainment outings or other of the usual events that we have been so accustomed to enjoying. Our beloved Toronto Maple Leafs will once again be denied the opportunity to win the Stanley Cup (they haven't won since 1967 and they probably weren't going to win this year...).
How quickly everything can change. We take so many things for granted and we realize now how suddenly everything can be so different. It brings ever increasing meaning to so much of the liturgy that we read on Yom Kippur.
I wish everyone the best of health and hope to try to keep in touch regularly with as many of you as possible. Let's hope that we got through this much quicker than expected.
Showing posts with label Likud. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Likud. Show all posts
Monday, March 30, 2020
Friday, September 6, 2019
Israeli Election 2019 - Some Possible Outcomes
I figure that there are about 4 or 5 realistic possible outcomes and I will consider them and the implications of these outcomes.
1. A Likud (Netanyahu) Victory
At this point, with about 11 days to go until the election, I would have to think that this is the most likely outcome. The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, needs to assemble a coalition of 61 seats to have a majority in the Israeli Knesset and form the government. Following the previous election, Netanyahu was able to string together up to 60 but not quite enough to form a government. Once it became clear that he was unable to form the government, Israeli customary practice would have normally seen the President ask the next party in line (Blue and White) to try to form the government. But Netanyahu preempted this step and brought a bill to the Knesset to dissolve the Knesset and set another election date.
So there are now at least two different ways, perhaps even three that the Likud could form a government.
One possibility would be if the Likud and its coalition partners obtain 61 seats or more.
Current polling from a whole range of different Israeli polls estimates Likud at between 30 and 32 seats, a drop of 6-8 seats. The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ are estimated at 8 each, with no change. The Yamina party, which is a coalition of a number of right wing nationalist parties, replacing Bennett's previous party, and now led by Ayelet Shaked, is polling at between 8 and 10 seats. So add all of that up, at the high end and you come up with about 58 seats. If Likud were to pick up 3 more, by itself or if any of its coalition partners were to add seats, Likud could get to a 61 seat coalition without Lieberman.
A second possibility is a deal with Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu). If the Likud is unable to put together a governing coalition of 61 seats without Lieberman's party, it will almost certainly try to negotiate a deal with Lieberman's party.
Following the last elections, Likud was unable to come up with a coalition deal that would have satisfied the ultra-religious parties and the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party. Neither Lieberman nor the ultra-religious were willing to make sufficient compromises, particularly on the issue of drafting ultra-religious men to the army.
While it is true that Lieberman seems to have gained significant public support by demonstrating a willingness to stand up to the ultra-orthodox, his party otherwise shares many of Likud's political positions. His party is willing to support a retroactive immunity bill that would get Netanyahu out of his various legal troubles. This would also help other coalition partners who are under investigation. Lieberman is also willing to support the "attack on the Supreme Court" bill (my description) that would give the Knesset the power to override any decision of the Supreme Court by a simple majority. This is an important bill for Netanyahu since he knows that the retroactive immunity bill would probably be struck down otherwise as a violation of the principles of fundamental justice.
Lieberman's support for these bills would be life-saving for Netanyahu since it would end all of his legal problems. Lieberman is certainly not a pushover but Netanyahu desperately needs these pieces of legislation to avoid the possibility of winding up in jail. I think that there is strong likelihood that Netanyahu and Lieberman will negotiate some kind of deal if Likud cannot otherwise get to 61.
A third possibility for a Likud win is some other type of coalition without Lieberman. Suppose that Likud and his coalition partners wound up with 57-60 without Lieberman. They would need to find 1-4 additional supporters from elsewhere. One possibility is to convince a few right-leaning Blue and White party members to join a Likud coalition, perhaps in exchange for cabinet posts other other attractive offers. Or perhaps some Labor members or members of the Democratic Union might be willing to make a deal. I think that these are relatively unlikely scenarios. I find it hard to see that some Blue and White Knesset members or members of the other parties would agree to the retroactive immunity bill and the court bill to protect Netanyahu. And that seems to be the number one priority for Likud and Netanyahu. That being said, in Israel there are always surprises and there is a great deal of horse trading (to put it nicely). So I don't think that this possibility can be ruled out entirely.
2. Another Stalemate
This is probably the second most likely possibility after some type of Likud victory. If Lieberman holds steady and refuses to make a deal that will allow Netanyahu to continue to govern and if no other Knesset members from other parties are willing to defect and join Likud - Israel could see a third consecutive election. With the holidays and other timing issues, this would likely mean a January or February election. This could be a big problem for Netanyahu. If his criminal trial moves ahead and he has not been able to enact an immunity bill to make everything go away, he could be forced to step down at some point to defend against the charges. This could change the Israeli political landscape quite a bit. To me, it underscores the urgency of a deal for Netanyahu - with Lieberman or anyone else - at all costs (from Netanyahu's perspective).
3. A National Unity Government
Many people in Israel have discussed this option but I don't believe it is very likely at this point.
On the one hand, if Likud were to have the plurality of seats, Netanyahu would be looking to retain his role as Prime Minister and pass the two bills that his party has been pushing to protect himself. I find it hard to see how the Blue and White party could agree to a retroactive immunity bill or even the Supreme Court bill. Blue and White might be willing to agree to have Netanyahu continue to govern - without these pieces of legislation. In this case, he would face the possibility of having to resign at some point as the prosecution progressed. I don't think Netanyahu would agree to a deal without immunity.
If Blue and White were to win a plurality of seats, they could ask Likud to join a national unity government, with or without Netanyahu - with no immunity bill. Again, this seems quite unlikely to me since the Likud members have shown a willingness to continue to support Netanyahu irrespective of the challenges that he faces.
The landscape would only change if the Blue and White party came out ahead of Likud by 5-6 seats or more and Likud realized that it simply could not get to 61. In this scenario, Netanyahu would, at some point, be forced to resign and face charges while the rest of the Likud party made a deal with Blue and White. This seems highly unlikely to me for several reasons. For one, I don't think that Blue and and White is about to get such a big win at the polls. They don't really seem to have the momentum and don't seem likely to finish ahead of Likud by 5-8 seats. Anything is possible but I am not predicting that outcome.
I also think that it is unlikely that so many Likud members would suddenly turn on Netanyahu after so many years of benefiting from his leadership. And I believe that with so much at stake, Netanyahu will pull out all the stops to cut a deal with someone to get the immunity bill and stay in power if there is any possible way of doing so.
4. A Blue and White Win
While this is a theoretical possibility, I don't see how the numbers add up. With a coalition of Blue and White, Labor, the Democratic Union (formerly Meretz) and even Lieberman, the total would come to 50-55. I suppose that there is a chance that Blue and White could convince the ultra-religious parties to join a coalition - but that would put Blue and White into the same difficulty that Likud has faced - balancing Ultra-religious demands with those of Lieberman (and now the Democratic Union). This would really require some creative deal-making on the part of Ganz and the Blue and White party. It is possible that they could get the chance to try if none of the other possibilities reviewed above lead to a government. Overall, I see this as unlikely but not impossible.
Conclusion
These different possibilities are all based on a review of current projected polling numbers combined with my own gut sense of where things are headed. But election polling can be off quite dramatically and the numbers may be very different from those in the polls. Likud could wind up at 37-40 seats, supported by many Israelis who don't really want to tell pollsters that they are voting Likud. However, these seats would probably come from Yamina (or maybe Blue and White) so it is not clear that even with 38-40, Netanyahu would be able to get to a coalition of 61 without Lieberman.
Watching election results in Israel is very different from watching in Canada or the United States. The actual polling station reports don't seem to turn up on a regular ongoing basis in the same way. Instead, the media reports on "exit polling" numbers and uses those reports to predict the election outcome. But the real results are usually not determined until the next morning - or perhaps even a few days later. So whereas in Canada or the U.S., most elections are usually decided by 10 p.m. or 11 p.m., the latest, that is not the case in Israel. We will probably only have a decent sense of the actual numbers by 10 or 11 a.m. Israel time on September 18th, 2019 (3 a.m. on the east coast for those in North America who plan to stay up and wait for the news...).
Even once the actual numbers are known, that will only really mark the start of coalition talks which are almost guaranteed to take a month or two. So stay tuned for a wild and crazy ride. It is almost certain that Israelis and Jews around the world will find themselves fasting on Yom Kippur without knowing what kind of government Israel will have for the coming years. As for Netanyahu, he may find himself fasting while hoping that he can continue to blow his own Shofar and that any negative decrees (from above, from the Israeli public or from the Israeli courts) can be averted.
Tuesday, April 2, 2019
Israeli Election Update - April 9 2019 Elections
Hi everyone. It has been a while. I have been quite occupied with a range of other pursuits - including my professional career. So I have neglected my Israeli-oriented blogging. But with only one week to go until Israeli elections, I thought an election blog was well overdue. I was reminded of this recently by a couple of friends and I thought I might have something to add.
In 2013, I put together a detailed preview. I have referenced that here: 2013 Israeli Election Preview.
So I won't reinvent the wheel. I would also suggest that you could have a look at this presentation - put together by someone close to me...
But things have changed quite a bit this time around. There are several new political parties. Some parties have vanished and others are teetering on the edge of oblivion. It should be quite an interesting election.
Most polls and surveys seem to be dividing the Israeli electorate into "Right Wing" and "Left Wing" blocs. The labels are probably somewhat misleading since the parties' positions on particular issues are not always readily discernible. However, the main reason for the classifications is that Israeli politics is always about coalition building. In order to form a government, one of the parties will need to string together a coalition of at least 61 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament). This would give the government a voting majority and allow it to pass legislation. So if the parties on the "right" are able to cobble together at least 61 seats, they will likely form the government even if the largest party in the coalition is not the party with the most overall votes. I will explain that as we go along. I thought I would first look at the main parties, current polling and some of the parties' political positions.
The Likud
The only "major" right wing party now according to most polls and predictions is the Likud, the party led by the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Over the past few months, polls have varied with the Likud winning somewhere between 26 and 32 seats. Likud currently has 30 seats in the Knesset which suggests that the party is not likely to gain or lose too many supporters. Since the last Israeli elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu has led a solidly right of centre government in a coalition with ultra-religious parties (13 seats), right wing nationalist parties (13 seats) and a centre-right party (10). Over the 9 years of his current mandate, in which Netanyahu has won three elections, his party's policies have varied somewhat depending on the coalition partners. Between 2013 and 2015, the government veered towards the centre as a result of the influence of the Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid. However, since 2015, the Netanyahu government has undone any centrist leaning policies that were implemented during those years and has moved the government to the right in most areas including social legislation, increased support for religious institutions, supreme court reform and a host of other areas. By any objective measure, it is clearly the most right wing government in Israel's history. Some Israelis are obviously quite happy about that while others are frustrated and disappointed.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has also been wrestling with a range of personal scandals, which have resulted in the Attorney General recommending charges in three different cases. All of these charges are subject to preliminary hearings before proceeding, which have yet to take place. Other stories continue to emerge about matters for which Netanyahu has not yet been charged. Although some might have thought that these wide ranging allegations of corruption would have affected Netanyahu in the polls, that does not appear to be the case. For one thing, none of the charges have actually gone forward and there are many Israelis who say that he should be treated as innocent unless and until he is found guilty of something. It is unclear what might happen to the charges after the election, especially if Netanyahu wins and forms the government. He may well escape from any sanctions but that remains to be seen.
Blue and White Party
The big change for this election is the addition of the Blue and White party, a merger between Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid" and Benny Ganz's new party "Hosen." Unlike the characterization in some of the polls and attacks by Netanyahu, this is not a "left wing" party. Its membership includes former army generals and high ranking offices with impressive military credentials. The party has indicated that it is willing to renew diplomatic efforts with Palestinians to try and reach some type of peace agreement. At the same time, it is as willing as the Likud to take strong military action in Gaza or anywhere else to defend Israel against military and terrorist threats.
Economically, the party is probably not that different from Likud in its capitalist outlook although it has proposed some economic policies that may align more with the centre or centre left. It has also stated a willingness to look at issues of gender equality, religious pluralism, education reform, budget allocation for religious institutions and other domestic issues. For many Israeli voters, who do not wish to see Netanyahu continue on as Prime Minister, the Blue and White party seems to be the only option and it is currently running neck and neck with the Likud at anywhere from 28 to 32 seats in recent polls.
That being said, even if Blue and White were to capture 30 or 32 seats, it might have a very difficult time piecing together a coalition of 61. In fact, that might even be impossible, depending on the exact numbers for each of the parties.
One possibility is that Blue and White could win a plurality and offer to run a national coalition government with Likud. However, it seems unlikely that Likud would agree, especially if Netanyahu continues to lead the party.
Smaller Right Wing Parties
There are four smaller right wing parties running in this election, each with slightly different constituencies and each vying to demonstrate that it is the true right wing alternative to the Likud party.
Yisrael Beitenu, under the leadership of Avigdor Lieberman is currently polling at around 4-5 seats and flirting with falling below the cut off point (3.25%). Parties that get less than the minimum amount of popular vote do not make it into the Knesset. Lieberman's party has been in and out of the government's ruling coalition over the years. He represents a nationalist but not religious constituency, many of whom are of Russian origin. The party has taken some right wing positions on territorial issues but has, in the past, suggested that it would be willing to engage in land swaps as way of reaching a deal with the Palestinians. Lieberman has often been at odds with Netanyahu. There could be a chance that if Yisrael Beitenu were to hold the balance of power and it were to get the right offer, it would join Blue and White as part of a government. The party would however, in general, be a more natural partner for the Likud party.
New Right
Earlier this year, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked left "Habayit Hayehudi" ("The Jewish Home") and formed a new party called "The New Right." In doing so, they seem to have taken about half of their support from the former party. One might say that they left the Home and took half of the contents....
So the New Right is polling at between 4 and 7 seats. The remaining members cobbled together another new coalition, now called the United Right which is also polling at 4 to 7 seats. Neither of these parties seem likely to join any party other than Likud. Both are committed to opposing any land concessions to the Palestinians and to continuing the status quo or annexing all of the disputed territories. This looks to be anywhere from 8 to 14 seats that will be "low hanging fruit" for the Likud in any coalition talks.
The other small right wing party is the Zehut (Identity) party of Moshe Feiglin. This self-described ultra-nationalist, libertarian party has campaigned on a platform of cannabis legalization, privatization of just about everything, annexation of all of the disputed territories and an increased separation between Synagogue and State. Zehut also favours easing up on Israeli gun control laws and allowing for non-religious civil marriage in Israel, possibly even same sex marriage. Zehut has apparently picked up quite a bit of support among young voters and is polling at between 4 and 5 seats, with some pundits predicting that the party may get as many as 7-10 seats. Once again, the party is a more likely partner of the Likud but might be willing to negotiate with the Blue and White party if they could find some common ground. The right amount of shared weed might make that more of a possibility, especially if both parties can agree on legalizing cannabis.
Some have joked around that Feiglin's supporters might be too stoned to make it to the polls - but the Zehut party seems poised to surprise the electorate and the pundits with a sizable showing.
The Left
According to most polls, the Labour party seems likely to suffer its worst defeat ever. It is polling at between 8 and 10 seats. It has played a very small role in public election discourse. It has suffered from infighting including a disastrous public break up with Tsipi Livni, a former coalition partner. Old style Labour economic policies do not seem to be appealing to most of the Israeli electorate. The party recognized this by choosing Avi Gabai, more of a centrist, to lead the party. However, the Labour campaign, by most accounts, has been a disaster. Perhaps the numbers will change on election day but that seems unlikely. A reasonably strong showing by Labour could still be helpful for the Blue and White party since the Blue and White party is the only possible coalition partner for Labour. If Blue and White could win 32-35 seats and Labour could win 10-12, there might be a chance that Blue and White could form the government, with a prominent role for the Labour party. If Labour only wins 7 or 8 seats, the party will likely spend the next four years in the political wilderness (i.e. the desert in Israel...)
Further along the spectrum is the Meretz party - a socially activist, proudly left wing party. Meretz seems to be polling at consistent 4-6 seat numbers. It could obtain some concessions from Blue and White and form part of the government if the option were available but that would really depend on all of the other numbers. Like its counterparts on the right, Meretz really only has one available option to be part of the government. Of course for Meretz that is the Blue and White party rather than the Likud.
The Ultra Religious
The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ (United Torah Judaism) are polling at a total of 12 to 14 seats. They have played a key role in the current government and have held various cabinet positions. The ultra-religious parties extracted significant concessions from Netanyahu and the Likud during the last round of coalition building negotiations. They obtained massive funding for their Yeshivot (religious educational institutions) and for the ultra-religious infrastructure in Israel. They also succeeded in passing new laws that would keep more retail places closed on Shabbat. Given what they have achieved with Netanyahu at the helm, it is unlikely that they would join a Blue and White coalition. At the same time, historically, the ultra-religious parties have shown a willingness to join more centrist parties if they can obtain significant concessions. If the Blue and White party were to make these far-reaching concessions, that would alienate many of their voters. I find it hard to see these parties joining Blue and White.
The Arab Parties
There are two Arab parties - Hadash Tal (polling at approximately 6-9 seats) and Ra'am Balad (polling at between 3 and 5 seats). If Ra'am Balad were to get 3, it would not make it into the Knesset. So the likely numbers are anywhere from 6 to 14, a wide spread. The Arab parties are not likely to join either governing group but could bolster a Blue and White coalition by voting with it - or agreeing not to vote against it.
Adding up everything, current polls are putting the right wing parties at anywhere from 62 to 68 seats and the other parties at 52 to 56.
If there is to be a change in government in Israel, the poll numbers would need to change significantly on election day. That could happen since election polls around the world seem to have become less and less dependable.
As well, some of the "right wing" parties could be enticed into a coalition with Blue and White with the right concessions.
In my view, the Blue and White Party would need at least 35-36 seats to have a chance at forming the government, with the Likud party winning 28 or less. If the Likud party has 30 seats or more and the Blue and White party has less than 35, the Likud will almost certainly form the government once again and Benjamin Netanyahu will continue as Israel's Prime Minister....for now.
I am looking forward to arriving in Israel just in time to vote and then sitting in front of the TV watching results all night (and maybe for several days afterwards). That being said, I'll simply add that I am not optimistic that Israel will have a competent, stable or forward-looking government in power over the coming years. Then again, looking around at what is taking place in so many countries around the world, is this a great surprise?
If you are an Israeli citizen and eligible to vote - make sure to go and exercise your right. B'hatzlachah to all the candidates and to all of those voters hoping that their party will win.
In 2013, I put together a detailed preview. I have referenced that here: 2013 Israeli Election Preview.
So I won't reinvent the wheel. I would also suggest that you could have a look at this presentation - put together by someone close to me...
Most polls and surveys seem to be dividing the Israeli electorate into "Right Wing" and "Left Wing" blocs. The labels are probably somewhat misleading since the parties' positions on particular issues are not always readily discernible. However, the main reason for the classifications is that Israeli politics is always about coalition building. In order to form a government, one of the parties will need to string together a coalition of at least 61 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament). This would give the government a voting majority and allow it to pass legislation. So if the parties on the "right" are able to cobble together at least 61 seats, they will likely form the government even if the largest party in the coalition is not the party with the most overall votes. I will explain that as we go along. I thought I would first look at the main parties, current polling and some of the parties' political positions.
The Likud
The only "major" right wing party now according to most polls and predictions is the Likud, the party led by the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Over the past few months, polls have varied with the Likud winning somewhere between 26 and 32 seats. Likud currently has 30 seats in the Knesset which suggests that the party is not likely to gain or lose too many supporters. Since the last Israeli elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu has led a solidly right of centre government in a coalition with ultra-religious parties (13 seats), right wing nationalist parties (13 seats) and a centre-right party (10). Over the 9 years of his current mandate, in which Netanyahu has won three elections, his party's policies have varied somewhat depending on the coalition partners. Between 2013 and 2015, the government veered towards the centre as a result of the influence of the Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid. However, since 2015, the Netanyahu government has undone any centrist leaning policies that were implemented during those years and has moved the government to the right in most areas including social legislation, increased support for religious institutions, supreme court reform and a host of other areas. By any objective measure, it is clearly the most right wing government in Israel's history. Some Israelis are obviously quite happy about that while others are frustrated and disappointed.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has also been wrestling with a range of personal scandals, which have resulted in the Attorney General recommending charges in three different cases. All of these charges are subject to preliminary hearings before proceeding, which have yet to take place. Other stories continue to emerge about matters for which Netanyahu has not yet been charged. Although some might have thought that these wide ranging allegations of corruption would have affected Netanyahu in the polls, that does not appear to be the case. For one thing, none of the charges have actually gone forward and there are many Israelis who say that he should be treated as innocent unless and until he is found guilty of something. It is unclear what might happen to the charges after the election, especially if Netanyahu wins and forms the government. He may well escape from any sanctions but that remains to be seen.
Blue and White Party
The big change for this election is the addition of the Blue and White party, a merger between Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid" and Benny Ganz's new party "Hosen." Unlike the characterization in some of the polls and attacks by Netanyahu, this is not a "left wing" party. Its membership includes former army generals and high ranking offices with impressive military credentials. The party has indicated that it is willing to renew diplomatic efforts with Palestinians to try and reach some type of peace agreement. At the same time, it is as willing as the Likud to take strong military action in Gaza or anywhere else to defend Israel against military and terrorist threats.
Economically, the party is probably not that different from Likud in its capitalist outlook although it has proposed some economic policies that may align more with the centre or centre left. It has also stated a willingness to look at issues of gender equality, religious pluralism, education reform, budget allocation for religious institutions and other domestic issues. For many Israeli voters, who do not wish to see Netanyahu continue on as Prime Minister, the Blue and White party seems to be the only option and it is currently running neck and neck with the Likud at anywhere from 28 to 32 seats in recent polls.
That being said, even if Blue and White were to capture 30 or 32 seats, it might have a very difficult time piecing together a coalition of 61. In fact, that might even be impossible, depending on the exact numbers for each of the parties.
One possibility is that Blue and White could win a plurality and offer to run a national coalition government with Likud. However, it seems unlikely that Likud would agree, especially if Netanyahu continues to lead the party.
Smaller Right Wing Parties
There are four smaller right wing parties running in this election, each with slightly different constituencies and each vying to demonstrate that it is the true right wing alternative to the Likud party.
Yisrael Beitenu, under the leadership of Avigdor Lieberman is currently polling at around 4-5 seats and flirting with falling below the cut off point (3.25%). Parties that get less than the minimum amount of popular vote do not make it into the Knesset. Lieberman's party has been in and out of the government's ruling coalition over the years. He represents a nationalist but not religious constituency, many of whom are of Russian origin. The party has taken some right wing positions on territorial issues but has, in the past, suggested that it would be willing to engage in land swaps as way of reaching a deal with the Palestinians. Lieberman has often been at odds with Netanyahu. There could be a chance that if Yisrael Beitenu were to hold the balance of power and it were to get the right offer, it would join Blue and White as part of a government. The party would however, in general, be a more natural partner for the Likud party.
New Right
Earlier this year, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked left "Habayit Hayehudi" ("The Jewish Home") and formed a new party called "The New Right." In doing so, they seem to have taken about half of their support from the former party. One might say that they left the Home and took half of the contents....
So the New Right is polling at between 4 and 7 seats. The remaining members cobbled together another new coalition, now called the United Right which is also polling at 4 to 7 seats. Neither of these parties seem likely to join any party other than Likud. Both are committed to opposing any land concessions to the Palestinians and to continuing the status quo or annexing all of the disputed territories. This looks to be anywhere from 8 to 14 seats that will be "low hanging fruit" for the Likud in any coalition talks.
The other small right wing party is the Zehut (Identity) party of Moshe Feiglin. This self-described ultra-nationalist, libertarian party has campaigned on a platform of cannabis legalization, privatization of just about everything, annexation of all of the disputed territories and an increased separation between Synagogue and State. Zehut also favours easing up on Israeli gun control laws and allowing for non-religious civil marriage in Israel, possibly even same sex marriage. Zehut has apparently picked up quite a bit of support among young voters and is polling at between 4 and 5 seats, with some pundits predicting that the party may get as many as 7-10 seats. Once again, the party is a more likely partner of the Likud but might be willing to negotiate with the Blue and White party if they could find some common ground. The right amount of shared weed might make that more of a possibility, especially if both parties can agree on legalizing cannabis.
Some have joked around that Feiglin's supporters might be too stoned to make it to the polls - but the Zehut party seems poised to surprise the electorate and the pundits with a sizable showing.
The Left
According to most polls, the Labour party seems likely to suffer its worst defeat ever. It is polling at between 8 and 10 seats. It has played a very small role in public election discourse. It has suffered from infighting including a disastrous public break up with Tsipi Livni, a former coalition partner. Old style Labour economic policies do not seem to be appealing to most of the Israeli electorate. The party recognized this by choosing Avi Gabai, more of a centrist, to lead the party. However, the Labour campaign, by most accounts, has been a disaster. Perhaps the numbers will change on election day but that seems unlikely. A reasonably strong showing by Labour could still be helpful for the Blue and White party since the Blue and White party is the only possible coalition partner for Labour. If Blue and White could win 32-35 seats and Labour could win 10-12, there might be a chance that Blue and White could form the government, with a prominent role for the Labour party. If Labour only wins 7 or 8 seats, the party will likely spend the next four years in the political wilderness (i.e. the desert in Israel...)
Further along the spectrum is the Meretz party - a socially activist, proudly left wing party. Meretz seems to be polling at consistent 4-6 seat numbers. It could obtain some concessions from Blue and White and form part of the government if the option were available but that would really depend on all of the other numbers. Like its counterparts on the right, Meretz really only has one available option to be part of the government. Of course for Meretz that is the Blue and White party rather than the Likud.
The Ultra Religious
The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ (United Torah Judaism) are polling at a total of 12 to 14 seats. They have played a key role in the current government and have held various cabinet positions. The ultra-religious parties extracted significant concessions from Netanyahu and the Likud during the last round of coalition building negotiations. They obtained massive funding for their Yeshivot (religious educational institutions) and for the ultra-religious infrastructure in Israel. They also succeeded in passing new laws that would keep more retail places closed on Shabbat. Given what they have achieved with Netanyahu at the helm, it is unlikely that they would join a Blue and White coalition. At the same time, historically, the ultra-religious parties have shown a willingness to join more centrist parties if they can obtain significant concessions. If the Blue and White party were to make these far-reaching concessions, that would alienate many of their voters. I find it hard to see these parties joining Blue and White.
The Arab Parties
There are two Arab parties - Hadash Tal (polling at approximately 6-9 seats) and Ra'am Balad (polling at between 3 and 5 seats). If Ra'am Balad were to get 3, it would not make it into the Knesset. So the likely numbers are anywhere from 6 to 14, a wide spread. The Arab parties are not likely to join either governing group but could bolster a Blue and White coalition by voting with it - or agreeing not to vote against it.
Adding up everything, current polls are putting the right wing parties at anywhere from 62 to 68 seats and the other parties at 52 to 56.
If there is to be a change in government in Israel, the poll numbers would need to change significantly on election day. That could happen since election polls around the world seem to have become less and less dependable.
As well, some of the "right wing" parties could be enticed into a coalition with Blue and White with the right concessions.
In my view, the Blue and White Party would need at least 35-36 seats to have a chance at forming the government, with the Likud party winning 28 or less. If the Likud party has 30 seats or more and the Blue and White party has less than 35, the Likud will almost certainly form the government once again and Benjamin Netanyahu will continue as Israel's Prime Minister....for now.
I am looking forward to arriving in Israel just in time to vote and then sitting in front of the TV watching results all night (and maybe for several days afterwards). That being said, I'll simply add that I am not optimistic that Israel will have a competent, stable or forward-looking government in power over the coming years. Then again, looking around at what is taking place in so many countries around the world, is this a great surprise?
If you are an Israeli citizen and eligible to vote - make sure to go and exercise your right. B'hatzlachah to all the candidates and to all of those voters hoping that their party will win.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Netanyahu Finalizes His Haredi Coalition
Zionist Union Party leader Isaac Herzog called it "the weakest, most extortionist, most narrow government in Israeli history." Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid called the coalition agreement "a liquidation sale." Hard to argue with these characterizations.
By all accounts, the concessions given up by Prime Minister Netanyahu to the various coalition partners are excessive and wide-ranging. The coalition agreement rewards the ultra-religious parties with a veritable reversal of a full range of changes that had been instituted at Lapid's behest in the previous mandate. I have listed them already in previous blogs. But "highlights" include:
- Reversing the requirement that the ultra-religious be conscripted to the army, like other Israelis;
- Reversing the requirement that state funded religious schools teach math and science and other secular subjects;
- Reversing the cuts to yeshivas and restoring all funding to all ultra-religious programs to pre-2012 levels;
- Providing the ultra-religious with an effective "veto" over any religion-state issues;
- Installing UTJ Knesset members in some of the most important Knesset roles including Chair of the Knesset Finance Committee;
- Turning over all key Education ministry positions to the religious parties, including responsibility for secular education.
The "bright light" in the new government was supposed to be Moshe Kahlon, who had been elected to focus on economic issues and help make the country more liveable for the Israeli middle class. But his opening act in this capacity has been the delivery of a stamp of approval to a governmental arrangement that will take billions of sheqels and pour it into parochial religious programs. I would have to think that if another election were held today, Kahlon would lose at least half of his seats as a result of this display of a complete lack of judgment.
Perhaps surprisingly, Avigdor Lieberman has kept his rightist "Yisrael Beitenu" out of this unholy coalition. That may well herald an early dissolution of what is bound to be a very unpopular government.
One would have to think that many Kahlon and Likud supporters will be demanding answers to why their parties felt the need to deliver so many concessions to the ultra-religious to form this government. I have yet to hear any convincing answers, certainly not from Kahlon.
The big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and the Zionist Union party, all of whom will sit in opposition. Of the three, it is really only Lapid and Lieberman who Israelis could count on to stand up to ultra-religious demands. The Israeli Labour party, in the past, has made equally unpalatable concessions to the ultra-orthodox and had signaled a willingness to do so once again if that would have put them in power. Only Lapid truly stood up to these demands in the previous Knesset and Lieberman has taken a stand this time around.
The good news, if there is any at this time, is that this government is not likely to last. Netanyahu's coalition building decisions may well mean that his days as Israel's Prime Minister are limited. There is bound to be a backlash as the government begins to implement this Haredi agenda.
Certainly Conservative and Reform rabbis and their congregations, in Israel and abroad, are likely to begin reciting the appropriate prayer for the speedy demise of this governing coalition and its replacement with one that is more representative, more pluralistic, more transparent and more committed to the rule of law (secular law, that is). And that is not to mention anything about the prospect of peace negotiations, which are not even likely to make it to the back burner with this governmental configuration.
Looking forward to the next election already....
Monday, May 4, 2015
Lieberman: Hero or Opportunist? Latest Rumblings from Israel.
At the same time, he can sometimes be far more practical than his right wing Israeli counterparts. Lieberman, for example, has indicated that he is prepared to support a true "two-state solution" whereby one state would be a Palestinian state for Palestinians and the other state would be a Jewish state. While some of his opponents call this a form of "ethnic cleansing," it is actually a far more logical solution than such epithets might suggest. As part of any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he argues, the Palestinians should be prepared to resolve any issue of Palestinian refugees by taking in as many Palestinians as would like to come - to their nascent state. In this context, he also argues that it is logical to draw the borders of the two states in such a way that the large Jewish populations in Gush Etzion and other West Bank areas remain in Israel; whereas areas with overwhelmingly Palestinian populations, even if those areas are currently part of Israel, are to be ceded to the Palestinian state. These proposals, he holds, would be most likely to ensure that there is a truly workable two state solution to the Palestinian conflict. For many, this makes much more sense for Israel's long term security than Bennett's plan to annex the West Bank ("Judea and Samaria"). Then what? Bennett and others on the right have no answer. For the long run, Lieberman has suggested that Israel's Arabs who choose to continue to live in Israel, rather than the Palestinian state, should be prepared to serve in Israel's military or national service and should be entitled to full equality of opportunity.
But getting back to Lieberman's current situation, he is a secular nationalist politician rather than a religious nationalist. His constituency is in favour of easing the restrictions on conversions to Judaism, lessening the power of the religious authorities over the state (especially the ultra-religious) and reducing state funding of the ultra-Orthodox institutions. Much of this would explain why Lieberman and his party were able to sit in a government with Lapid's Yesh Atid in the previous coalition, even though Lapid is viewed as much more of centrist.
But now, Prime Minister Netanyahu has reversed directions completely from the previous government that he led. The first party that he signed up to join his coalition was United Torah Judaism. I wrote about the concessions that Netanyahu made in my lost blog. Certainly these concessions would be very hard to stomach for anyone with Lieberman's views about religion and state. The concessions make it virtually impossible that Lapid's Yesh Atid party would even negotiate with this government, let alone join it. But Lieberman was still negotiating.
Then today, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced another coalition agreement. He had signed up the other ultra-religious party, led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and was willing to provide that party with a fat range of concessions and ministerial portfolios. Things get uglier and uglier by the day for those who endorse some level of shul-state separation or religious pluralism in Israel.
After the Shas announcement, Lieberman announced that his party would not join this government. This will leave Netanyahu with a razor-thin 61 seat government (out of 120 in the Knesset), once Netanyahu finalizes an arrangement with Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" (Jewish Home) party.
It is too early, in my view, to determine whether Lieberman is using this pressure as a negotiating tactic to wrangle some further concessions out of Netanyahu or whether he is taking a principled approach. It is fair to say that over the years, Lieberman has not always been characterized as a man of principle. We will probably have a better idea over the next few days.
If Lieberman stays out of the government, the big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid and Lieberman himself. Many Israelis who voted for Likud or Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party will be sorely disappointed to see that the biggest priority of their new government will be to restore a vast range of funding to various ultra-religious programs and to retract on the requirement that ultra-orthodox share the military burden of defending the state. Many Israelis will find it hard to fathom that the solution for Israel's current financial situation is to take huge sums of money and pour it into ultra-religious programs, at the expense of universal health, education, infrastructure and other priorities. This could mean a relatively short-lived government and a big boost for Lapid and Lieberman in the next election (at the expense of Likud and Kulanu seats).
On the other hand, if Lieberman simply uses this opportunity to extract further concessions for his party and himself and then joins a government which goes ahead with this ultra-religious program, he will undoubtedly alienate even more of his constituency (he had already fallen from 13 to 6 seats in the most recent election).
It should be interesting to follow. I am inclined to suggest that many Israelis watching these events unfold will be much more likely to vote for Lapid in the next election. This could create quite the pendulum swing in the religion-state relationship. For Netanyahu to go ahead with such far reaching changes, while only holding a one seat majority, will be perilous for him and his party - as well as for Kahlon who will be seen as an accomplice to this shift towards the ultra-religious.
Then again, all of that is an "optimistic" view of Israeli voters from a democratic, pluralistic view point. If Israelis really do prefer to have the ultra-religious hold the balance of power....well...it becomes hard to imagine where we are headed.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is supposed to present the final governing coalition by May 7, 2015. It will be fascinating to see what takes place in the late night, closed door meetings between now and then.
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Post Purim 2015: On to the Israeli Elections 2015
It was a busy week in Israel - for me, for our family and for the country. Purim was on Wednesday night and Thursday. That always brings with it lots of festivities in Israel - parties, parades, carnivals, mishloach manot (gift baskets) and shul. Just preparing for Wednesday night was busy for our family, as we (three of us) read 4 of the 10 chapters of the Megillah at our shul. Add to that - a wonderful fundraising evening of Jazz on Tuesday night that we were invited to attend (to raise money to build a well in Sudan) and a bar mitzvah celebration on Thursday night of some close friends - and things were quite busy and tiring.
Today marked the start of another week here in Israel. Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two. It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.
So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.
Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013. If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview. Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.
However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates. I thought I would highlight a few:
1. The Zionist Union
The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union." This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset. As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.
According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members. It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election. But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.
2. Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu
In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu. The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly. This time around, they are running separately. However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats. They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8. While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again. The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.
3. Yesh Atid/ Kulanu
The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education. At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats. Where are these votes going? The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues. There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down. The polling results are likely to fluctuate. Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6. Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union. They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.
4. Bayit Hayehudi
This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats. The party held 12 after the last elections. My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes. On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace." Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition. Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war. Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely.
5. Arab Parties
In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties. They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats. It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal. There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point. In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.
6. Shas/ Yachad
Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party. In 2013, it won 11 seats. It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc. It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters. While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured. A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together"). Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats. They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition. They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government. They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.
Summary
In reviewing the Likud math (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party). That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes. So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government. Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union. With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government. He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.
On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with). Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57. Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government. If Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60. Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis. It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.
It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate). Neither seem incredibly likely at this point. While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi. There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.
All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur. Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view. The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.
But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens. Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.
Today marked the start of another week here in Israel. Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two. It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.
So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.
Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013. If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview. Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.
However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates. I thought I would highlight a few:
1. The Zionist Union
The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union." This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset. As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.
According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members. It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election. But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.
2. Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu
In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu. The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly. This time around, they are running separately. However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats. They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8. While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again. The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.
3. Yesh Atid/ Kulanu
The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education. At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats. Where are these votes going? The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues. There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down. The polling results are likely to fluctuate. Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6. Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union. They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.
4. Bayit Hayehudi
This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats. The party held 12 after the last elections. My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes. On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace." Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition. Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war. Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely.
5. Arab Parties
In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties. They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats. It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal. There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point. In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.
6. Shas/ Yachad
Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party. In 2013, it won 11 seats. It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc. It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters. While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured. A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together"). Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats. They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition. They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government. They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.
Summary
In reviewing the Likud math (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party). That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes. So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government. Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union. With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government. He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.
On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with). Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57. Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government. If Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60. Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis. It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.
It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate). Neither seem incredibly likely at this point. While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi. There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.
All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur. Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view. The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.
But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens. Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.
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