Showing posts with label Lapid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lapid. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Netanyahu Finalizes His Haredi Coalition

Well, the negotiations are over and we have a new government in Israel.  A razor-thin 61 seat government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party.  The government includes the UTJ (United Torah Judaism) (an ultra-religious Ashkenazi party), Shas (an ultra-religious Sefardi party, led by a convicted fraudster), Bayit Hayehudi (a religious Zionist party) and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party.  This is one big right wing party (or maybe a small right wing party, since it can hardly be described as a broad government).

Zionist Union Party leader Isaac Herzog called it "the weakest, most extortionist, most narrow government in Israeli history."  Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid called the coalition agreement "a liquidation sale."  Hard to argue with these characterizations.

By all accounts, the concessions given up by Prime Minister Netanyahu to the various coalition partners are excessive and wide-ranging.  The coalition agreement rewards the ultra-religious parties with a veritable reversal of a full range of changes that had been instituted at Lapid's behest in the previous mandate.  I have listed them already in previous blogs.  But "highlights" include:

  • Reversing the requirement that the ultra-religious be conscripted to the army, like other Israelis;
  • Reversing the requirement that state funded religious schools teach math and science and other secular subjects;
  • Reversing the cuts to yeshivas and restoring all funding to all ultra-religious programs to pre-2012 levels;
  • Providing the ultra-religious with an effective "veto" over any religion-state issues;
  • Installing UTJ Knesset members in some of the most important Knesset roles including Chair of the Knesset Finance Committee;
  • Turning over all key Education ministry positions to the religious parties, including responsibility for secular education.
The list goes on and on.  For those who favour religious pluralism, for liberal democrats and those who favour shul-state separation, the list of concessions is stomach churning.  In fact, I'm having a hard time thinking of anything positive to say about the composition of this government, other than, perhaps, the notion that Netanyahu may be the leader most capable of overseeing Israel's military and managing it in the face of a war or other major military event (which could occur at any time).

The "bright light" in the new government was supposed to be Moshe Kahlon, who had been elected to focus on economic issues and help make the country more liveable for the Israeli middle class.  But his opening act in this capacity has been the delivery of a stamp of approval to a governmental arrangement that will take billions of sheqels and pour it into parochial religious programs.  I would have to think that if another election were held today, Kahlon would lose at least half of his seats as a result of this display of a complete lack of judgment.

Perhaps surprisingly, Avigdor Lieberman has kept his rightist "Yisrael Beitenu" out of this unholy coalition.  That may well herald an early dissolution of what is bound to be a very unpopular government.

One would have to think that many Kahlon and Likud supporters will be demanding answers to why their parties felt the need to deliver so many concessions to the ultra-religious to form this government.  I have yet to hear any convincing answers, certainly not from Kahlon.

The big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and the Zionist Union party, all of whom will sit in opposition.  Of the three, it is really only Lapid and Lieberman who Israelis could count on to stand up to ultra-religious demands.  The Israeli Labour party, in the past, has made equally unpalatable concessions to the ultra-orthodox and had signaled a willingness to do so once again if that would have put them in power.  Only Lapid truly stood up to these demands in the previous Knesset and Lieberman has taken a stand this time around.

The good news, if there is any at this time, is that this government is not likely to last.  Netanyahu's coalition building decisions may well mean that his days as Israel's Prime Minister are limited.  There is bound to be a backlash as the government begins to implement this Haredi agenda.

Certainly Conservative and Reform rabbis and their congregations, in Israel and abroad, are likely to begin reciting the appropriate prayer for the speedy demise of this governing coalition and its replacement with one that is more representative, more pluralistic, more transparent and more committed to the rule of law (secular law, that is).  And that is not to mention anything about the prospect of peace negotiations, which are not even likely to make it to the back burner with this governmental configuration.

Looking forward to the next election already....








Monday, May 4, 2015

Lieberman: Hero or Opportunist? Latest Rumblings from Israel.

Avigdor Lieberman heads the "Yisrael Beitenu" ("Israel, Our Home") party in Israel.  He is a bit more of a complex politician than one might have thought.  On the one hand, he is viewed by some as a far right wing nationalist.  Certainly he has made some comments in the past about Israel's Arab population that can only be described as "racist."  He is unpredictable and will often say some things that many politicians would probably later regret.

At the same time, he can sometimes be far more practical than his right wing Israeli counterparts.  Lieberman, for example, has indicated that he is prepared to support a true "two-state solution" whereby one state would be a Palestinian state for Palestinians and the other state would be a Jewish state.  While some of his opponents call this a form of "ethnic cleansing," it is actually a far more logical solution than such epithets might suggest.  As part of any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he argues, the Palestinians should be prepared to resolve any issue of Palestinian refugees by taking in as many Palestinians as would like to come - to their nascent state.  In this context, he also argues that it is logical to draw the borders of the two states in such a way that the large Jewish populations in Gush Etzion and other West Bank areas remain in Israel; whereas areas with overwhelmingly Palestinian populations, even if those areas are currently part of Israel, are to be ceded to the Palestinian state.  These proposals, he holds, would be most likely to ensure that there is a truly workable two state solution to the Palestinian conflict.  For many, this makes much more sense for Israel's long term security than Bennett's plan to annex the West Bank ("Judea and Samaria").  Then what?  Bennett and others on the right have no answer.  For the long run, Lieberman has suggested that Israel's Arabs who choose to continue to live in Israel, rather than the Palestinian state, should be prepared to serve in Israel's military or national service and should be entitled to full equality of opportunity. 

But getting back to Lieberman's current situation, he is a secular nationalist politician rather than a religious nationalist.  His constituency is in favour of easing the restrictions on conversions to Judaism, lessening the power of the religious authorities over the state (especially the ultra-religious) and reducing state funding of the ultra-Orthodox institutions.  Much of this would explain why Lieberman and his party were able to sit in a government with Lapid's Yesh Atid in the previous coalition, even though Lapid is viewed as much more of centrist.

But now, Prime Minister Netanyahu has reversed directions completely from the previous government that he led.  The first party that he signed up to join his coalition was United Torah Judaism.  I wrote about the concessions that Netanyahu made in my lost blog.  Certainly these concessions would be very hard to stomach for anyone with Lieberman's views about religion and state.  The concessions make it virtually impossible that Lapid's Yesh Atid party would even negotiate with this government, let alone join it.  But Lieberman was still negotiating.

Then today, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced another coalition agreement.  He had signed up the other ultra-religious party, led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and was willing to provide that party with a fat range of concessions and ministerial portfolios.  Things get uglier and uglier by the day for those who endorse some level of shul-state separation or religious pluralism in Israel.

After the Shas announcement, Lieberman announced that his party would not join this government. This will leave Netanyahu with a razor-thin 61 seat government (out of 120 in the Knesset), once Netanyahu finalizes an arrangement with Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" (Jewish Home) party.   

It is too early, in my view, to determine whether Lieberman is using this pressure as a negotiating tactic to wrangle some further concessions out of Netanyahu or whether he is taking a principled approach.  It is fair to say that over the years, Lieberman has not always been characterized as a man of principle.  We will probably have a better idea over the next few days.

If Lieberman stays out of the government, the big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid and Lieberman himself.  Many Israelis who voted for Likud or Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party will be sorely disappointed to see that the biggest priority of their new government will be to restore a vast range of funding to various ultra-religious programs and to retract on the requirement that ultra-orthodox share the military burden of defending the state.  Many Israelis will find it hard to fathom that the solution for Israel's current financial situation is to take huge sums of money and pour it into ultra-religious programs, at the expense of universal health, education, infrastructure and other priorities.  This could mean a relatively short-lived government and a big boost for Lapid and Lieberman in the next election (at the expense of Likud and Kulanu seats).

On the other hand, if Lieberman simply uses this opportunity to extract further concessions for his party and himself and then joins a government which goes ahead with this ultra-religious program, he will undoubtedly alienate even more of his constituency (he had already fallen from 13 to 6 seats in the most recent election).

It should be interesting to follow.  I am inclined to suggest that many Israelis watching these events unfold will be much more likely to vote for Lapid in the next election.  This could create quite the pendulum swing in the religion-state relationship.  For Netanyahu to go ahead with such far reaching changes, while only holding a one seat majority, will be perilous for him and his party - as well as for Kahlon who will be seen as an accomplice to this shift towards the ultra-religious.   

Then again, all of that is an "optimistic" view of Israeli voters from a democratic, pluralistic view point.  If Israelis really do prefer to have the ultra-religious hold the balance of power....well...it becomes hard to imagine where we are headed.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is supposed to present the final governing coalition by May 7, 2015.  It will be fascinating to see what takes place in the late night, closed door meetings between now and then. 


  
   

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Big Win for Netanyahu: Some Post Election Thoughts

"Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his Likud party to a massive and surprising victory on Tuesday.  While pre-election polls had put the Likud in second place with a forecast of 20-21 seats, the party emerged with 30 seats, the largest number of any party and some 25% of Knesset seats.  Netanyahu will still need to add 31 more Knesset members to get to the magic number of 61to form a government.  However, that looks like it will be relatively easy for him this time around as compared to what he faced just after the 2013 elections.  He will have the support of Habayit Hayehudi ("Jewish Home" - Naftali Bennett's party) which was reduced to 8 seats from 13.  He will also have the support of Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home" - Avigdor Lieberman's party) which won 6 seats.  That brings him to 44.  He will then turn to the ultra-religious and add in Shas (8) and Degel HaTorah (6). With 58 Knesset members and needing only 3 more, he will most likely count on the Kulanu party, led by Moshe Kahlon with its 10 seats to put Likud at 68.  There is a possibility that Yesh Atid (11 seats) will also consider joining but that seems less likely, especially if the government includes Shas and Degel HaTorah.  Even without one of these two parties, the government may be too far to the right for the tastes of the 11 Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) members.

The Zionist coalition finished with 24 seats, 6 behind Likud.  The United Arab List finished with 14 to become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset.  Meretz hung on with 4 and Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad, which had left Shas did not make it into the Knesset.

This is all not very good news for Israelis on the left or even those in the centre.  Effectively, Netanyahu will have accomplished his goal.  He will have exchanged the "left" constituents of his previous government - Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid - for two ultra-religious parties (Shas and Degel HaTorah) and Moshe Kahlon's party.  Kahlon was a former Likud MK himself.  Not that Livni or Lapid were really "leftists" but in the Netanyahu government, they certainly were.


As the election campaign was drawing to a close, Netanyahu sought to shore up his right wing support by renouncing his past statements of support for a Palestinian state. Based on the anticipated constituent members of the government that will most likely be formed, it is hard to see how any negotiations will take place with the Palestinians anytime soon.

If the ultra-religious parties are back in the government, as expected, we can anticipate a rollback of some of the changes that Lapid sought to bring in.  A restoration of funding for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious interests.  A pullback on the effort to put the ultra-religious in the army.  Increased power over religious affairs in the state handed back to the ultra-orthodox.  

It seems to me that we can also anticipate a further deterioration in current U.S.-Israeli relations and EU-Israeli relations.  I'm reluctant to go on with predictions of other developments that we are likely to anticipate but they are daunting.

In looking at these results, we can size up the Israeli electorate as follows.  57 out of the 120 Knesset seats are right wing or religious parties.  21 more are centrists or right-centrists.  14 seats are in the Arab bloc.  That leaves 28 seats for the left.  The results clearly show that the Israeli electorate leans, at this point in time, heavily to the right.

There had been a sense of optimism in central Israel that the left and the centre would fare better.  Even the exit polls that were released at 10 p.m. in Israel suggested that the Likud would be tied with the Zionist Union at 28 for the lead.  But when the votes were actually counted and the results announced, Israelis had shown a clear preference to continue on with Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") as the Prime Minister.

Winners and Losers

Prime Minister Netanyahu was the big winner of the evening with 30 seats, rallying from a polling deficit, a barrage of attacks from the press and a big push by the left to try and remove him from office.  He scored a convincing victory.  If he serves out a full term, he will become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.

Looking down the list, it is also reasonable to put Moshe Kahlon in the winners group, with his 11 seats.  His party will most likely join the government and will have significant power.  Other winners include Shas, which is also likely to join the government.  The Joint Arab List won a convincing 14 seats.  However, they will sit in opposition and have little impact on the government. Avigdor Lieberman held on to 6 seats and will likely hold a cabinet post. So, on balance, he can also be put in the winners category.

Almost all of the other parties can be put into the "losers" camp.  For Yesh Atid under Lapid, this election meant a reduction in seats from 19 to 11.  Lapid's party is likely to be sitting in the opposition this time around after holding a number of important cabinet posts in the most recent government.  It is hard to paint this as any kind of victory for Lapid.

The Zionist Camp won 24 seats.  While that is a respectable number, the party's goal was to form the government.  That will not happen.  This can only be described as a defeat for that party as well, despite the sugar coating by some of its leaders.

Meretz held on to its status with 4 seats but its leader promptly resigned, early this morning, taking the blame for the party's decline in numbers.  Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad failed to make the cut off and will not sit in the Knesset.  The election can even be viewed as a defeat for Bennett's (Habayit Hayehudi) party which only won 8 seats.  However, Bennett will play a key role in the new government so it is more of a mixed result for his party.

The 2013 election brought a sense of optimism in some Israeli circles as a government was formed that included Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid and left out the ultra religious parties. That government made some moves on economic and social issues but approached Palestinian issues through the Naftali Bennett lens.  Now, it is anticipated that the party's "left" will be Moshe Kahlon's party and the party will continue to approach Palestinian issues through a Naftali Bennett lens.  As well, the government will approach many other issues through an Ultra-Orthodox lens.

In the losers category, I suppose I will also have to include my personal election predictions.  I accurately predicted that Yishai would be out and that Meretz would make it in (barely).  My predictions for Yisrael Beitenu, the Arab list, Shas and Degel HaTorah, were all within one.  I was wildly off with the Likud predicting 21- which is 9 less than the 30 that they won.  I overestimated the Zionist Camp (27-24), Yesh Atid (16-11) and Bayit Yehudi (13-8).  Conversely, I underestimated Kahlon (7-10).  On the whole, it looks like a chunk of centrist votes went to Kahlon instead of Lapid - and a chunk of right wing votes went to Likud instead of Bayit Yehudi. 

Conclusion 

What can be concluded? The left and the centre are far from close to forming a government in Israel at the present time.  The electorate prefers a right wing government and has voted heavily in favour of putting one in place.

Israel is surrounded by hostile, unstable regimes.  The threat of war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border looms large as does the possibility that the Syrian civil war will spill into a conflict that engages Israel.  Egypt is a powder keg and Israel is constantly on high alert at its southern border.  All three of these realities would be unlikely to change irrespective of the type of leadership that Israel had in place.

With respect to the Palestinians, many Israelis fear that the danger of a Hamas takeover in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would make a two state solution suicidal for Israel at the present time.  Together with all of this, pre-election opinion polls showed that Netanyahu was perceived as the best leader for Israel.  Zionist Camp leader Herzog did not project strength or confidence.  On the other hand, Netanyahu was perceived as a strong, forceful, qualified political and military leader.  For many Israelis, that is the type of leader Israel needs to face the unique range of existential threats that it must constantly address.

One can only up that the day will come when Israelis feel less threatened existentially and confident enough to try a different approach.  These elections clearly demonstrate that this is not yet the case.

I guess for now we will have to go with this line from our daily prayers:

עושה שלום במרומיו, הוא יעשה שלום עלינו ועל כל ישראל, ואמרו אמן





Sunday, March 8, 2015

Post Purim 2015: On to the Israeli Elections 2015

It was a busy week in Israel - for me, for our family and for the country.  Purim was on Wednesday night and Thursday.  That always brings with it lots of festivities in Israel - parties, parades, carnivals, mishloach manot (gift baskets) and shul.  Just preparing for Wednesday night was busy for our family, as we (three of us) read 4 of the 10 chapters of the Megillah at our shul.  Add to that - a wonderful fundraising evening of Jazz on Tuesday night that we were invited to attend (to raise money to build a well in Sudan) and a bar mitzvah celebration on Thursday night of some close friends - and things were quite busy and tiring.

Today marked the start of another week here in Israel.  Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two.  It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.

So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.

Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013.  If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview.  Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.

However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates.  I thought I would highlight a few:

1.  The Zionist Union

The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union."  This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party.  Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset.  As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.

According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members.  It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election.  But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.

2.  Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu

In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu.  The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly.  This time around, they are running separately.  However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats.  They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8.  While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again.  The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.

3.  Yesh Atid/ Kulanu

The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid  party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education.  At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats.  Where are these votes going?  The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues.  There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down.  The polling results are likely to fluctuate.  Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6.  Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union.  They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.

4.  Bayit Hayehudi 

This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats.  The party held 12 after the last elections.  My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes.  On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace."  Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition.  Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war.  Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely. 

5.  Arab Parties

In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties.  They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats.  It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal.  There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point.  In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.

6.  Shas/ Yachad

Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party.  In 2013, it won 11 seats.  It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc.  It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters.  While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured.  A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together").  Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats.  They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition.  They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government.  They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.

Summary

In reviewing the Likud math  (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party).  That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes.  So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government.  Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union.  With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government.  He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.

On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with).  Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57.  Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government.  If  Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60.  Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis.  It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.

It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate).  Neither seem incredibly likely at this point.  While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi.  There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.

All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur.  Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view.  The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.

But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens.  Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.







Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Israel Elections 2015 - Latest Trends

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu
What to make of the upcoming elections in Israel which are scheduled for March 17, 2015?  According to the most recent polls, Israel's 20th Knesset may well look quite a bit like the current Knesset.  It is likely however that the religious parties will join the government, replacing Yesh Atid, in what would be a more right wing government than the current one.

However, there is a fair bit of time until the election, about 40 days.  Much can change as it often does in the swirling Mideastern winds of an Israeli election campaign.

Over the past week or two, there have been numerous stories in the press about the excesses of the Netanyahu family in the Prime Ministerial home.  One story involved allegations that Prime Minister Netanyahu's wife was pocketing a huge amount of money from refunded deposits on the return of water bottles.  Another story focused on excessive wine consumption in the Netanyahu quarters and a third story questioned a patio furniture purchase that the Netanyahus had recently made.  Listening to the Israeli news broadcasts, one might have thought that the reaction to this accumulation of allegations would be overwhelmingly negative.  But surprisingly, in polls that have come after this media barrage, Netanyahu has emerged, according to the polls with an even higher number of predicted seats than he had before the scandals broke.  The latest polls have put him at anywhere between 24 and 27 seats in the 120 seat Israeli Knesset, which would likely give him enough to have a plurality and have first dibs at forming a government.

Where there was some apparent momentum in the media for Isaac Herzog, leader of the Labour Party and Tsipi Livni (who together have joined forces to campaign as the "Zionist Camp"), the poll numbers do not seem to be reflecting the media enthusiasm.  The latest polls put the Zionist Camp at a similar range - 23 to 26 but the additional questions that pollsters have been asking suggest that the confidence in Herzog as a potential Prime Minister is lacking in the Israel public and that the Zionist Camp numbers may not wind up as high as the numbers that are currently being reported.

At election time, Israel usually winds up with a few new parties.  In this case there is a new centrist party, led by Moshe Kahlon.  The party is a centrist party, focusing on economic issues.  Does this sound familiar?  A look at the pools suggests that they are currently at a predicted eight seats, most of which were probably taken from Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid's party.

Of course many of these numbers could change quite a bit between now and election time.

So far, however, there seem to be few scenarios under which Herzog could become the Prime Minister.  Assuming he obtained 26-28 seats, how could he get to 61?  He could add in 13 seats from Yesh Atid (on a good day), 6 from Meretz and 9 from Kahlon.  So that would get him to 56.  And those are some very flattering and highly optimistic assumptions all around.  He would then need to find 5 or 6 more seats.  One option would be Lieberman's "Yisrael Beitenu" which would bring this coalition somewhat to the right.  Hard to imagine making a successful shiduch out of that arrangement.  Another option would be to add in the religious parties - Shas, United Torah Judaism and "Yachad" - a new Shas splinter group.  That could amount to 10 or even 15 seats but the cost would be the reversal of most of the gains that Israel achieved in the two years of governing without these parties in the Knesset.  It would be very unpalatable for Lapid - unless the Haredi parties greatly toned down their historic demands.  Of course another option is that the "Zionist Camp" could be supported by the three Arab parties - that have now united under one banner.  But how ironic would it be for the "Zionist Camp" to form a government that is held together by 12 Arab Israeli legislators?

On the other hand, if Prime Minister Netanyahu emerges with 25 to 27 seats, his path to a majority seems somewhat less difficult (at least ideologically).  He could add in Yisrael Biteinu with 6, the "Jewish Home" under Bennett with 12. That would put him at 45.  He would now have the possible options of a mixture of Shas/Yachad/UTJ (10-15), Kahlon (8/9), Yesh Atid (9-12), which could get him close to 70.  Even if Lapid chose not to join this unholy coalition, there would likely still be enough for Netanyahu to exceed 62 and form a government.  However, it would be a significantly more right wing government than the one that is currently in place.

A third option would be some sort of Labour-Likud coalition - which Israel has seen in the past.  Hard to imagine as things sit right now.  However, Prime Minister Netanyahu has certainly had his differences with most of his current coalition partners - ranging from Bennett to Lapid.  Perhaps a government with fewer partners would be more manageable?  Not that this would be a "Zionist Camp" fantasy - but it might be preferable, even for Herzog, to the alternative of a few years of a hard right Israeli government or a government that is dependent on the demands of the ultra religious parties.

It is somewhat unclear what Netanyahu's inclinations really would be with these different alternatives.  The easier route for him might be a government with 13-17 ultra-religious seats bolstering his core group.  But the cost would be quite high for Israeli secular society.  I'm really not sure that it is a cost that even Netanyahu is willing to pay, after having been able to see what can be accomplished in a government without the ultra religious parties.  He may have already made some type of deal with Shas (and certainly there have been rumours to that effect).  But until the election results are in and the deal is consummated, nothing is certain.

In my view, a right wing coalition with the various ultra-religious parties and Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" will create many challenges for Israel, both domestically and internationally.  It would be a coalition that would continue to increase the gap between the rich and the poor in Israel and one that would reverse many of the changes that had been made to secular-religious issues in Israel.  In particular, it is a coalition that would spend much more money funding Yeshivas and new settlements and would halt the very modest trend towards increased religious pluralism in Israel.  And it is a coalition that could lead to the further isolation of Israel in many international circles by taking an even harder line in matters involving the Palestinians.  I find it hard to imagine that a majority of Israelis would view this as the best type of government but I guess that is for Israelis to decide at the polls. 

It should be a very interesting period in Israel as we watch the changing poll results come in and wait to see if any of the parties are able to create some momentum in an unforeseen direction over the course of this campaign.  I'm not betting on it.