Showing posts with label Israel election 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel election 2015. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Big Win for Netanyahu: Some Post Election Thoughts

"Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his Likud party to a massive and surprising victory on Tuesday.  While pre-election polls had put the Likud in second place with a forecast of 20-21 seats, the party emerged with 30 seats, the largest number of any party and some 25% of Knesset seats.  Netanyahu will still need to add 31 more Knesset members to get to the magic number of 61to form a government.  However, that looks like it will be relatively easy for him this time around as compared to what he faced just after the 2013 elections.  He will have the support of Habayit Hayehudi ("Jewish Home" - Naftali Bennett's party) which was reduced to 8 seats from 13.  He will also have the support of Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home" - Avigdor Lieberman's party) which won 6 seats.  That brings him to 44.  He will then turn to the ultra-religious and add in Shas (8) and Degel HaTorah (6). With 58 Knesset members and needing only 3 more, he will most likely count on the Kulanu party, led by Moshe Kahlon with its 10 seats to put Likud at 68.  There is a possibility that Yesh Atid (11 seats) will also consider joining but that seems less likely, especially if the government includes Shas and Degel HaTorah.  Even without one of these two parties, the government may be too far to the right for the tastes of the 11 Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) members.

The Zionist coalition finished with 24 seats, 6 behind Likud.  The United Arab List finished with 14 to become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset.  Meretz hung on with 4 and Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad, which had left Shas did not make it into the Knesset.

This is all not very good news for Israelis on the left or even those in the centre.  Effectively, Netanyahu will have accomplished his goal.  He will have exchanged the "left" constituents of his previous government - Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid - for two ultra-religious parties (Shas and Degel HaTorah) and Moshe Kahlon's party.  Kahlon was a former Likud MK himself.  Not that Livni or Lapid were really "leftists" but in the Netanyahu government, they certainly were.


As the election campaign was drawing to a close, Netanyahu sought to shore up his right wing support by renouncing his past statements of support for a Palestinian state. Based on the anticipated constituent members of the government that will most likely be formed, it is hard to see how any negotiations will take place with the Palestinians anytime soon.

If the ultra-religious parties are back in the government, as expected, we can anticipate a rollback of some of the changes that Lapid sought to bring in.  A restoration of funding for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious interests.  A pullback on the effort to put the ultra-religious in the army.  Increased power over religious affairs in the state handed back to the ultra-orthodox.  

It seems to me that we can also anticipate a further deterioration in current U.S.-Israeli relations and EU-Israeli relations.  I'm reluctant to go on with predictions of other developments that we are likely to anticipate but they are daunting.

In looking at these results, we can size up the Israeli electorate as follows.  57 out of the 120 Knesset seats are right wing or religious parties.  21 more are centrists or right-centrists.  14 seats are in the Arab bloc.  That leaves 28 seats for the left.  The results clearly show that the Israeli electorate leans, at this point in time, heavily to the right.

There had been a sense of optimism in central Israel that the left and the centre would fare better.  Even the exit polls that were released at 10 p.m. in Israel suggested that the Likud would be tied with the Zionist Union at 28 for the lead.  But when the votes were actually counted and the results announced, Israelis had shown a clear preference to continue on with Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") as the Prime Minister.

Winners and Losers

Prime Minister Netanyahu was the big winner of the evening with 30 seats, rallying from a polling deficit, a barrage of attacks from the press and a big push by the left to try and remove him from office.  He scored a convincing victory.  If he serves out a full term, he will become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.

Looking down the list, it is also reasonable to put Moshe Kahlon in the winners group, with his 11 seats.  His party will most likely join the government and will have significant power.  Other winners include Shas, which is also likely to join the government.  The Joint Arab List won a convincing 14 seats.  However, they will sit in opposition and have little impact on the government. Avigdor Lieberman held on to 6 seats and will likely hold a cabinet post. So, on balance, he can also be put in the winners category.

Almost all of the other parties can be put into the "losers" camp.  For Yesh Atid under Lapid, this election meant a reduction in seats from 19 to 11.  Lapid's party is likely to be sitting in the opposition this time around after holding a number of important cabinet posts in the most recent government.  It is hard to paint this as any kind of victory for Lapid.

The Zionist Camp won 24 seats.  While that is a respectable number, the party's goal was to form the government.  That will not happen.  This can only be described as a defeat for that party as well, despite the sugar coating by some of its leaders.

Meretz held on to its status with 4 seats but its leader promptly resigned, early this morning, taking the blame for the party's decline in numbers.  Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad failed to make the cut off and will not sit in the Knesset.  The election can even be viewed as a defeat for Bennett's (Habayit Hayehudi) party which only won 8 seats.  However, Bennett will play a key role in the new government so it is more of a mixed result for his party.

The 2013 election brought a sense of optimism in some Israeli circles as a government was formed that included Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid and left out the ultra religious parties. That government made some moves on economic and social issues but approached Palestinian issues through the Naftali Bennett lens.  Now, it is anticipated that the party's "left" will be Moshe Kahlon's party and the party will continue to approach Palestinian issues through a Naftali Bennett lens.  As well, the government will approach many other issues through an Ultra-Orthodox lens.

In the losers category, I suppose I will also have to include my personal election predictions.  I accurately predicted that Yishai would be out and that Meretz would make it in (barely).  My predictions for Yisrael Beitenu, the Arab list, Shas and Degel HaTorah, were all within one.  I was wildly off with the Likud predicting 21- which is 9 less than the 30 that they won.  I overestimated the Zionist Camp (27-24), Yesh Atid (16-11) and Bayit Yehudi (13-8).  Conversely, I underestimated Kahlon (7-10).  On the whole, it looks like a chunk of centrist votes went to Kahlon instead of Lapid - and a chunk of right wing votes went to Likud instead of Bayit Yehudi. 

Conclusion 

What can be concluded? The left and the centre are far from close to forming a government in Israel at the present time.  The electorate prefers a right wing government and has voted heavily in favour of putting one in place.

Israel is surrounded by hostile, unstable regimes.  The threat of war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border looms large as does the possibility that the Syrian civil war will spill into a conflict that engages Israel.  Egypt is a powder keg and Israel is constantly on high alert at its southern border.  All three of these realities would be unlikely to change irrespective of the type of leadership that Israel had in place.

With respect to the Palestinians, many Israelis fear that the danger of a Hamas takeover in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would make a two state solution suicidal for Israel at the present time.  Together with all of this, pre-election opinion polls showed that Netanyahu was perceived as the best leader for Israel.  Zionist Camp leader Herzog did not project strength or confidence.  On the other hand, Netanyahu was perceived as a strong, forceful, qualified political and military leader.  For many Israelis, that is the type of leader Israel needs to face the unique range of existential threats that it must constantly address.

One can only up that the day will come when Israelis feel less threatened existentially and confident enough to try a different approach.  These elections clearly demonstrate that this is not yet the case.

I guess for now we will have to go with this line from our daily prayers:

עושה שלום במרומיו, הוא יעשה שלום עלינו ועל כל ישראל, ואמרו אמן





Sunday, March 8, 2015

Post Purim 2015: On to the Israeli Elections 2015

It was a busy week in Israel - for me, for our family and for the country.  Purim was on Wednesday night and Thursday.  That always brings with it lots of festivities in Israel - parties, parades, carnivals, mishloach manot (gift baskets) and shul.  Just preparing for Wednesday night was busy for our family, as we (three of us) read 4 of the 10 chapters of the Megillah at our shul.  Add to that - a wonderful fundraising evening of Jazz on Tuesday night that we were invited to attend (to raise money to build a well in Sudan) and a bar mitzvah celebration on Thursday night of some close friends - and things were quite busy and tiring.

Today marked the start of another week here in Israel.  Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two.  It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.

So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.

Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013.  If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview.  Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.

However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates.  I thought I would highlight a few:

1.  The Zionist Union

The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union."  This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party.  Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset.  As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.

According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members.  It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election.  But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.

2.  Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu

In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu.  The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly.  This time around, they are running separately.  However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats.  They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8.  While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again.  The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.

3.  Yesh Atid/ Kulanu

The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid  party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education.  At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats.  Where are these votes going?  The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues.  There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down.  The polling results are likely to fluctuate.  Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6.  Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union.  They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.

4.  Bayit Hayehudi 

This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats.  The party held 12 after the last elections.  My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes.  On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace."  Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition.  Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war.  Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely. 

5.  Arab Parties

In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties.  They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats.  It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal.  There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point.  In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.

6.  Shas/ Yachad

Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party.  In 2013, it won 11 seats.  It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc.  It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters.  While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured.  A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together").  Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats.  They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition.  They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government.  They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.

Summary

In reviewing the Likud math  (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party).  That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes.  So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government.  Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union.  With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government.  He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.

On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with).  Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57.  Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government.  If  Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60.  Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis.  It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.

It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate).  Neither seem incredibly likely at this point.  While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi.  There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.

All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur.  Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view.  The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.

But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens.  Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.